European Economic Experts Panel

 

 

This European survey examines (a) This summer's extreme weather in Europe will lead to substantial upward revisions to assessments of the near-term economic costs of the physical risks from climate change; (b) Because current emissions reductions will have little effect on the climate experienced during today’s voters’ lifetimes, this summer’s extreme weather events in Europe are unlikely to persuade people to vote for more ambitious near-term climate policy; (c) Upward revisions of insurance premiums for physical risks associated with climate change following this summer's extreme weather events in Europe would indicate that insurance and reinsurance markets have historically underpriced those risks 

This European survey examines (a) A substantial increase in defense spending largely funded by government borrowing would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth over the next five years; (b) Increasing public investment in defense R&D would generate substantial technological spillovers and productivity gains in addition to the boost to national military capabilities; (c) The market power of defense suppliers substantially raises procurement costs without adding to military capabilities. 

This European survey examines (a) Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has experienced substantially lower growth than it would have done had it remained in the European Union; (b) The UK would be substantially richer ten years from now if it immediately began negotiations and domestic preparations with the aim of fully rejoining the European Union 

The European Commission recently presented the European Technological Sovereignty Package, a set of measures intended to strengthen Europe's capacity in semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), cloud and open source: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_1187; (a) EU countries' current reliance on non-European digital infrastructure – including cloud computing, AI, microchips, software and data centres – carries substantial economic risks in the medium term; (b) By securing critical supply chains (such as advanced semiconductors), scaling local cloud data centres and funding open source alternatives, the EU's technological sovereignty package will substantially reduce economic risks in the medium term; (c) By securing critical supply chains (such as advanced semiconductors), scaling local cloud data centres and funding open source alternatives, the EU's technological sovereignty package will substantially increase the long-term productivity and innovation capacity of European tech firms 

This European survey examines (a) Over the past 25 years, the income of the median European citizen has declined substantially relative to the income of the median American citizen; (b) The living standards of the median European are not substantially lower than those of the median American 

This European survey examines (a) The EU's rules on corporate mergers have been a substantial constraint on productivity growth in Europe; (b) Loosening the EU’s rules on corporate mergers would provide a substantial boost to the emergence of European champions able to compete effectively in the global economy; (c) In terms of promoting stronger European economic growth, looser merger rules would be substantially less effective than completing the single market, including the creation of a ‘28th regime’ of corporate rules 

This European survey examines (a) In a world in which most economic powers have programmes that give preference to their own strategic resources – for example, the Chinese have ‘Made in China’, and the Americans have ‘Buy American’ – the EU’s strategic independence would be substantially enhanced by establishing some form of European preference in public procurement in selected sectors; (b) A ‘Buy European’ programme of public procurement in selected sectors could be implemented in a way that would deliver greater EU innovation and growth over the next five years than in the absence of such a programme 

This European survey examines (a) The release of strategic oil reserves announced by the International Energy Agency will deliver substantially lower prices for vehicle fuels over the next six months than would otherwise have been the case; b) Assuming that world commodity prices over the next six months continue to be elevated and volatile, temporarily subsidising or capping natural gas prices would be an effective way to protect European households and businesses from high energy bills; (c) The vulnerability of the European economy to high and volatile fossil fuel prices indicates the need for stronger incentives to promote decarbonisation rather than rowing back on policy support for the energy transition