European Economic Experts Panel

 

 

This European survey examines (a) The reductions in Western programs of development assistance will have no measurable effects on GDP growth in the recipient countries over the next five years; (b) The reductions in Western programs of development assistance will have substantially negative effects on the most vulnerable people in the recipient countries over the next five years; (c) Development assistance motivated by the potential benefits for the donors in terms of prosperity and security is measurably more effective in promoting GDP growth in recipient countries than aid based on humanitarian or other moral principles 

This European survey examines (a) Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit; (b) The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war; (c) In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover 

This European survey examines (a) The wave of immigration to Germany after 2015 (and up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine) has been a net positive for the country's economy; (b) Immigration to EU countries has been a net positive for government finances, adding substantially more in tax revenues than the increased costs associated with integration of immigrants; (c) Given Europe's low and falling fertility rates (from seven million births per year in 1960 to four million today), maintaining its position as a world economic power will require increased immigration over the medium term

  

This European survey examines: Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/

'In recent years, the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country's values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives... The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit formal written notification of the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.'

(a) US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will deliver a measurable boost to the country's economic growth over the next four years; (b) US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will have a measurably negative impact on international progress on mitigation of global warming 

This European survey examines (a) A baseline US tariff of 10% on all European imported goods would have substantially damaging economic consequences for many countries in Europe; (b) Rather than responding to threatened tariffs with retaliatory measures, unilaterally opening EU markets to US exports would deliver better outcomes for European industry; (c) Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years

  

This European survey examines (a) The likely need for increased European public investment in defense should come with substantial reallocations of public budgets at the national and EU levels; (b) Greater use of joint EU-level procurement of military equipment and defense research/innovation would promote substantially enhanced capacity in Europe's defense industry; (c) Increased defense spending would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth in Europe over the next five years 

This European survey examines (a) On the basis of current climate policy commitments and potential technology and market responses, my current best estimate for global warming is that average global temperatures by 2100 will rise to no more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels 

This European survey examines (a) A period of high inflation is substantially more electorally damaging to incumbent governments in advanced countries than a period of high unemployment; (b) Voters are more likely to punish incumbents for what they perceive as poor national economic performance than they are to reward incumbents for a good economy