Question A:
Economic insecurity is a more important driver of the recent rise of populist movements than voters’ concerns about national culture and identity.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Populist movements that achieve electoral success lead to a substantial slowdown in economic growth.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Some degree of potentially growth-constraining policies on trade, investment and/or migration is necessary to limit the further rise of populist movements.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They act together. Cultural concerns become more important when there are economic grievances.
-see background information here |
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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How would we know? A survey? Not very reliable.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Economic insecurity is the main theme of commentators like Victor Davis Hanson.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They are both important.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the US at least, some MAGA voters support policies that clearly are contrary to their interests. So I infer that something else is important to them.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These issues are so tightly linked that it is hard to quantify them separately.
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both factors contributed and often interacted, but there are examples were national culture and identity played the major role (Poland was a fast growing economy in 2015) and examples were economic insecurity was the overwhelming factor (rise of Syrisa in Greece post 2009).
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Concerns about immigration and race find traction in people who are economically insecure, making one force mediate the other, not apply separately
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is driven by a complicated mishmash of factors, but both the data and many conversations with people who have been allured by populist leaders make me think it is mostly *not* economics.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too hard to separate in general. Left wing populism more purely economic driven. Recent right wing populisms relies heavily on national culture and identity but amplified or catalyzed by fears of economic insecurity; importantly, whether these fears are founded or not.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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To the degree that they are antidemocratic, they are likely to slow growth.
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Argentina?
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Substantial is a high bar.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bad for the economy in the medium to long-term, but maybe not an immediate reduction in growth
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There can be a temporary boom, driven by unsustainable policies, followed by a slowdown or crash.
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Data show that over the medium run populists regimes underperform (Funke, Schularick and Trebesch, AER, 2023)
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on the alternative....
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Longer run effects are definitely negative and substantial, but short run effects from higher deficits and other short-sighted policies may lead to heating up the economy in shorter run, implying higher growth for some time. To some extent, that is the definition of populism.
-see background information here |
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, but many of these policies can be designed in a way that does not affect growth adversely, while reducing cultural backlash
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Efficiency Über alles, with no heed to distribution, is sure to backfire politically, as did China trade policies in the 2000s, and AI policy in the Trump era.
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think it would be so much better to try to address these issues through redistribution but since we have taught the world to believe that large-scale redistribution is catastrophic we now need to turn to the inferior substitutes
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unfortunately, limiting immigration seems necessary to head off populism. I think that this is bad for the economy and humanity but there seems no alternative. However, this is already happening to a large extent and I don't think we need more limits.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Past policies, like Trade Adjustment Assistance, aimed to deal with disruptions from trade but with little apparent success. We need effective policies that provide some assistance and avoid negative political responses.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Migration in countries with welfare states is problematic. Milton Friedman was correct. You can have free migration or a welfare state, but not both. Needs smart regulation.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it is not clear to me which policy mix would deliver enough votes to win
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Growth need not be constrained if coupled with appropriate policies designed to ensure the benefits of growth are equitably shared. Populism arises not out of growth per se, but out of turning a deaf ear to those harmed by growth.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Necessary" seems too strong.
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Though if the growth-constraining policy on, e.g. migration, lowers the chance of populist government, that itself likely increases longer-run growth
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Migration is probably the most pressing, but it could be done in a way that doesn't stifle growth.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I doubt it. Know no evidence or compelling accounts in the direction that conceding some marginal populism in these policy areas lowers the demand for further populism or lowers the success of more populist candidates. Improving economic security safety net may be best lever.
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