Question A:
A recent CRFB report is a reminder of concerns about the long-term financial sustainability of Social Security: https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/dont-let-social-securitys-91st-birthday-be-one-its-last
Removing the cap on earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes, without increasing benefits for earnings above the current cap, would substantially improve the program's long-term financial sustainability and make it more progressive.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Removing the cap on earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes, without increasing benefits for earnings above the current cap, would substantially improve the long-term financial sustainability of the consolidated federal budget.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Replacing wage indexation with price indexation in the calculation of initial Social Security retirement benefits would substantially improve the program's long-term financial sustainability without undermining its social insurance function.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question D:
Automatically adjusting the Social Security full retirement age in line with increases in life expectancy would substantially improve the program's long-term financial sustainability.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But we may need to have a more radical overhaul.:payroll taxes add to labor income taxation and increase the asymmetry between labor and capital income taxes. It may be useful to consider higher capital income taxes and transfers from other parts of gov. budget to Social Security
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree with the statement, although labor supply responses by high earners to the higher marginal tax rate will reduce the gains and reduce general tax revenue. Expanding the tax to cover nonwage compensation is a better option.
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Substantially means about closing about 20% of the gap. This is not a comprehensive solution
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Need to combine with other changes.
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This idea was proposed by Alvin Rabushka in a 1998 WSJ op-ed as part of tax reform more generally. He argued that the progressivity of this change would balance the regressivity of moving to a flat tax.
-see background information here |
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fewer people over time and no governor on benefits.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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May close 58% of the 75-year gap.
-see background information here |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This would be a very large tax increase for many households with consequences beyond the stated question.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This alone delays insolvency for about 30 years
-see background information here |
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure it is the optimal strategy but it will do what the question asks about.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Of course the cap can be raised to less than infinity.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would help. I'm not sure what the threshold is for substantial.
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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While I strongly agree, there is much research that needs to be done to make the case that a flat income tax plus a flat social security tax would be superior to our current system. I have described such a project on my website.
-see background information here |
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends if this is really done and there are no offsets elsewhere. It would raise money and then the question is whether other spending and taxes will also be changed.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the short-run, this will likely reduce fiscal deficits. The long-run response is unclear. This would make the top marginal tax rate in places like NYC and CA the highest in the world, with unknown impact on internationally-mobile top earners.
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unclear how many drops it would be in this bucket.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Uncertain because there is no guarantee that with AI-driven automation, wage increases will be faster than price increases in the future.
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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During the last 45 years, real wage growth has been low (wages have been growing at same rate as prices). As a result, it would have made little difference during this period.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The index should be constructed to reflect the cost of living of the elderly.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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16 percent improvement from shifting to the chained CPI, see the link below
-see background information here |
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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May close 69% of the 75-year gap and 131% (!) of the 2100 gap. Essentially phasing out SS benefits relative to real wages in the long run.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Would help with solvency but reduces the growth path of benefits - the social insurance part of this question depends a lot on the baseline assumption.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Assuming that wages increase faster than prices, which is plausible not not assured.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This would matter very little for sustainability in the next decade, unless it were applied retroactively to current beneficiaries
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The UK triple lock shows the folly that can happen.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on whether real wages rise.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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