Question A:
A more assertive EU trade policy, including greater use of trade restrictions against countries engaging in market-distorting practices, would substantially strengthen Europe's economic performance.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The EU economy would benefit substantially from greater use of anti-subsidy duties against imports from countries that provide subsidies and/or other forms of government support to their domestic producers.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is about China. They do provide subsidies but many of these are to do with innovation. They have been very successful in this, particularly in EVs, batteries, solar cells, and wind turbines. If Europe wants to meet green targets it needs cooperation with China not a fight.
|
||||
 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Perhaps if done in a surgical manner, but policy makers don't make good surgeons.
|
||||
 Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
the economic argument for such subsidies is some version of infant industry . Maybe relevant for some sectors, but potentially abused to do it for others
|
||||
 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Could be a component of a policy package designed to buy time for recovery of certain eu manufacturing sectors under pressure. But vulnerable to abuse to protect declining industries. Also concept of distortion may be anachronistic.
|
||||
 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There is a quid-pro-quo in every assertive economic measure - so we have to factor in the responses of other countries if the EU acts as you suggest. As a final outcome I can imagine that everybody is probably worse off, rather than better...
|
||||
 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
"Substantially" is a tall order, but if there are market-distorting practices, there are grounds to respond. Core challenge is determining such practices and to prevent that such policy turns into protectionism.
|
||||
 Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Trade plays a small role, so any positive effect from improvements in trade partners' policies would be small, at best. Worse, such a policy could be abused to strengthen protectionism in Europe
|
||||
 Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I believe foreign compétition is key to EU competitiveness
|
||||
 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Trade with china has generally been a benefit for Europe
-see background information here |
||||
 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
it will get highjacked for many unrelated policy preferences and agendas
|
||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I disagree with "substantially", I would have agreed with "some, perhaps". The volumes in cause are rarely of macroeconomic size. And retorsions could happen.
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Gain this is about China. They now have superior technology in many areas than Europe. We need to cooperate to catch up rather than fight them. They overtook us and we need to adopt similar strategies that they did when behind.
|
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Countervailing duties can be helpful, and are consistent with WTO rules. Of course, their desirability varies across sectors, and they come at a consumer surplus cost.
|
||||
|
Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
id
|
||||
|
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Unlikely on their own to boost productivity in EU industries; adverse effect on cost structures.
|
||||
|
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
As argued before, anti-subsidy measures might be taken by other countries as well, and since subsidy is itself a fuzzy concept, the eventual outcome might be negative for EU companies as well.
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Essentially the same comment as for earlier question.
|
||||
|
Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The beneficiaries would be the producers, but the customers would miss on cheap goods partly financed by foreign taxpayers.
|
||||
