Clark Center Forum

About the Clark Center Forum

The Forum for the Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets is home to the European, Finance, and US Economic Experts Panels as well as a repository of thoughtful, current, and reliable information regarding topics of the day.
US

Living-Donor Kidney Transplants

Question A:

There is draft legislation in Congress to increase the supply of human kidneys by encouraging donations to strangers: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/2687

It is summarized here: https://www.hawaiibusiness.com/bipartisan-bill-aims-to-prevent-kidney-deaths-by-compensating-donors/

Existing matching markets for kidney exchange have extended the lives of thousands of Americans with kidney disease.

Question B:

A one-time $50,000 tax credit for kidney donation to strangers (with the transplants allocated at zero cost to recipients on the basis of waiting times) would save thousands of lives and pay for itself through a reduction in the cost of providing medical care to people suffering from renal failure.

Question C:

Allowing hospitals to pay people for kidney donation to strangers would be at least as effective at saving lives and more cost effective than a tax credit.

 
US

AI, Work, and Education

This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in advanced countries; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries; (c) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education 
Europe

European Merger Rules

This European survey examines (a) The EU's rules on corporate mergers have been a substantial constraint on productivity growth in Europe; (b) Loosening the EU’s rules on corporate mergers would provide a substantial boost to the emergence of European champions able to compete effectively in the global economy; (c) In terms of promoting stronger European economic growth, looser merger rules would be substantially less effective than completing the single market, including the creation of a ‘28th regime’ of corporate rules 
US

Pied-a-Terre Tax

This US survey examines: The New York governor has proposed a pied-à-terre tax to support the New York City mayor’s efforts to close the city’s budget gap: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-pied-terre-tax-proposal-luxury-second-homes-valued-5-million-or-more

Details are starting to emerge: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/nyregion/second-home-tax.html

In the meantime, consider a tax that starts at 0.5% of assessed value over $5 million and rises to 4% of assessed value over $25 million, as in this 2019 proposal: https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2019/S44/amendment/original (a) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would raise annual revenues of at least $500 million for the city over the next five years; (b) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would lead to a substantial exodus of businesses and high-net-worth individuals from the city over the next five years; (c) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would make housing substantially more affordable for ordinary New Yorkers over the next five years 
On Global Markets

Prediction Markets – Value and Regulation

Prediction markets, exchanges where market participants can trade contracts based on unknown future events such as sports results or the outcomes of elections, are booming. One recent report looked at trading volumes over the past few years and came complete with a rather striking chart. (The final data point on this chart represents partially month […] 
Finance

Prediction Markets

This Finance survey examines (a) Prediction markets provide substantially more accurate forecasts of key macro-financial variables than traditional sources such as surveys of professional forecasters; (b) Retail market participants would be measurably better off if sports contracts on prediction markets were regulated more like gambling than like financial derivatives