This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
This US survey examines: Mayor Mamdani has announced that a core basket of everyday groceries will be 30% cheaper at five new municipal grocery stores:
https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/07/mayor-mamdani-unveils-30–discount—including-all-produce–all-; a) The profits on groceries that the city-owned grocery stores would forgo are sufficiently small that the vast majority of the 30% discount would be provided by tax-funded subsidies; (b) A food assistance program along the lines of SNAP, with a potentially higher income cutoff, would provide direct support to low- and moderate-income city residents more effectively and with lower administrative costs than the proposed city-owned grocery stores
This US survey examines (a) A substantial increase in defense spending largely funded by government borrowing would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth over the next five years; (b) Increasing public investment in defense R&D would generate substantial technological spillovers and productivity gains in addition to the boost to national military capabilities; (c) The market power of defense suppliers substantially raises procurement costs without adding to military capabilities
This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in advanced countries; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries; (c) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education
This European survey examines (a) A substantial increase in defense spending largely funded by government borrowing would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth over the next five years; (b) Increasing public investment in defense R&D would generate substantial technological spillovers and productivity gains in addition to the boost to national military capabilities; (c) The market power of defense suppliers substantially raises procurement costs without adding to military capabilities.
This European survey examines (a) Over the past 25 years, the income of the median European citizen has declined substantially relative to the income of the median American citizen; (b) The living standards of the median European are not substantially lower than those of the median American
Shifting the burden of municipal property taxes towards land and away from improvements such as buildings – as proposed in the Detroit land value tax plan – will enhance the incentives for owners to develop their land and thereby give a substantial boost to local economic growth over a ten-year horizon.
This US survey examines: The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, currently before Congress, includes proposed legislation on manufactured housing: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-the-21st-century-road-to-housing-act/; (a) Legislation to remove the federal requirement that manufactured homes be built on a permanent chassis would substantially improve the supply of affordable single-family housing
This US survey examines (a) Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would lead to a substantial reduction in the numbers of skilled immigrants in the US; (b) Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would have a measurably adverse impact on a substantial number of US businesses
This US survey examines: Adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the next ten years
This US survey examines (a) The 60-day waiver of the Jones Act (which requires that cargo moved between domestic ports is carried on US vessels) will deliver substantially lower average US gas prices at the pump than otherwise over the next two months; (b) Permanent repeal of the Jones Act would have a measurably bigger impact in lowering average US gas prices at the pump than a temporary suspension; (c) Any national security benefits from the Jones Act are more than offset by its negative economic effects
This US survey examines (a) Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has experienced substantially lower growth than it would have done had it remained in the European Union; (b) The UK would be substantially richer ten years from now if it immediately began negotiations and domestic preparations with the aim of fully rejoining the European Union
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
Imposing new US tariffs on steel and aluminum will improve Americans’ welfare.
This US survey examines: The New York governor has proposed a pied-à-terre tax to support the New York City mayor’s efforts to close the city’s budget gap: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-pied-terre-tax-proposal-luxury-second-homes-valued-5-million-or-more
Details are starting to emerge: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/nyregion/second-home-tax.html
In the meantime, consider a tax that starts at 0.5% of assessed value over $5 million and rises to 4% of assessed value over $25 million, as in this 2019 proposal: https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2019/S44/amendment/original (a) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would raise annual revenues of at least $500 million for the city over the next five years; (b) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would lead to a substantial exodus of businesses and high-net-worth individuals from the city over the next five years; (c) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would make housing substantially more affordable for ordinary New Yorkers over the next five years
This US survey examines (a) Independent of any other cuts to public funding of scientific research, a 55% reduction in the budget for the National Science Foundation would have no measurable effect on the well-being of the typical American over the next 10 years; (b) Historical federal support for scientific research has paid for itself through a substantial positive effect on long-run US productivity growth
This Finance survey examines (a) Aggressive use of tax alpha investment strategies that use long-short strategies to enhance loss realization, as well as accounting treatments that allow generation of losses that can offset ordinary income, offers substantial additional returns for high net worth investors over a ten-year horizon; (b) Aggressive use of tax alpha investment strategies that use long-short strategies to enhance loss realization, as well as accounting treatments that allow generation of losses that can offset ordinary income, is leading to substantial reductions in government revenue from high net worth investors
This US survey examines: (a) Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years; (b) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years; (c) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) If the federal minimum wage is raised gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020, the employment rate for low-wage US workers will be substantially lower than it would be under the status quo.
B) Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020 would substantially increase aggregate output in the US economy.
