By Popularity

This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in advanced countries; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries; (c) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education

This US survey examines: The New York governor has proposed a pied-à-terre tax to support the New York City mayor’s efforts to close the city’s budget gap: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-pied-terre-tax-proposal-luxury-second-homes-valued-5-million-or-more

Details are starting to emerge: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/nyregion/second-home-tax.html

In the meantime, consider a tax that starts at 0.5% of assessed value over $5 million and rises to 4% of assessed value over $25 million, as in this 2019 proposal: https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2019/S44/amendment/original (a) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would raise annual revenues of at least $500 million for the city over the next five years; (b) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would lead to a substantial exodus of businesses and high-net-worth individuals from the city over the next five years; (c) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would make housing substantially more affordable for ordinary New Yorkers over the next five years

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:

Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.

This Finance survey examines (a) Prediction markets provide substantially more accurate forecasts of key macro-financial variables than traditional sources such as surveys of professional forecasters; (b) Retail market participants would be measurably better off if sports contracts on prediction markets were regulated more like gambling than like financial derivatives

This US survey examines (a) Independent of any other cuts to public funding of scientific research, a 55% reduction in the budget for the National Science Foundation would have no measurable effect on the well-being of the typical American over the next 10 years; (b) Historical federal support for scientific research has paid for itself through a substantial positive effect on long-run US productivity growth

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:

The US spends roughly 17% of GDP on healthcare, according to the OECD; most European countries spend less than 12% of GDP.

Higher quality-adjusted US healthcare prices contribute relatively more to the extra US spending than does the combination of higher quantity and quality of US care (interpreting quantity and quality to reflect both greater American healthcare needs due to underlying population health and the delivery of more or better healthcare services to Americans).

This US survey examines (a) Restrictions on large institutional investors buying single-family homes would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership; (b) Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership

This US survey examines: Adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the next ten years

This European survey examines (a) The EU’s rules on corporate mergers have been a substantial constraint on productivity growth in Europe; (b) Loosening the EU’s rules on corporate mergers would provide a substantial boost to the emergence of European champions able to compete effectively in the global economy; (c) In terms of promoting stronger European economic growth, looser merger rules would be substantially less effective than completing the single market, including the creation of a ‘28th regime’ of corporate rules

‘Modern monetary theory’ (MMT) – the idea that a country that is able to borrow in its own currency need not worry about government deficits and debt – has been all over the economics and finance media in recent weeks. This approach to macroeconomics, which has been used to underpin calls for new public spending programs, has been debated widely in newspaper columns, blog posts and tweets – often in quite vitriolic ways.

Shifting the burden of municipal property taxes towards land and away from improvements such as buildings – as proposed in the Detroit land value tax plan – will enhance the incentives for owners to develop their land and thereby give a substantial boost to local economic growth over a ten-year horizon.

This US survey examines (a) The release of strategic oil reserves announced by the International Energy Agency will deliver substantially lower US gasoline prices at the pump over the next six months than would otherwise have been the case; (b) Assuming that world oil prices over the next six months continue to be elevated and volatile, temporarily suspending the federal gasoline tax would deliver substantially lower gas prices at the pump than otherwise over that period; (c) A temporary cap on US gasoline prices would substantially lower prices at the pump over the next six months without creating scarcity

This US survey examines (a) The 60-day waiver of the Jones Act (which requires that cargo moved between domestic ports is carried on US vessels) will deliver substantially lower average US gas prices at the pump than otherwise over the next two months; (b) Permanent repeal of the Jones Act would have a measurably bigger impact in lowering average US gas prices at the pump than a temporary suspension; (c) Any national security benefits from the Jones Act are more than offset by its negative economic effects

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:

A) Freer trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choices, and in the long run these gains are much larger than any effects on employment.

B) On average, citizens of the U.S. have been better off with the North American Free Trade Agreement than they would have been if the trade rules for the U.S., Canada and Mexico prior to NAFTA had remained in place.

This US survey examines: (a) Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years; (b) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years; (c) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:

A) If the US replaced its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard, defining a “dollar” as a specific number of ounces of gold, the price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average American.

B) There are many factors besides US inflation risk that influence the current dollar price of gold.

This US survey examines (a) Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years; (b) Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers; (c) The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.

This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Revising France’s labor market policies — by reducing employment protection, decentralizing labor negotiations to the firm level, and making training programs more accessible and responsive to labor demands — would, all else equal, increase productivity in France’s economy.

B) Reducing employment protection would reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate in France.