Question A:
The 60-day waiver of the Jones Act (which requires that cargo moved between domestic ports is carried on US vessels) will deliver substantially lower average US gas prices at the pump than otherwise over the next two months.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Permanent repeal of the Jones Act would have a measurably bigger impact in lowering average US gas prices at the pump than a temporary suspension.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Any national security benefits from the Jones Act are more than offset by its negative economic effects.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It helps, but the effect is very small
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Temporary waivers have little impact on prices because there are few opportunities to change shipping practices for a short period of time.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It will prices in some places and lower them elsewhere and whether things are mobilized in 2 months is not absolutely certain.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Suspending the Jones act will increase gas prices in some markets and decrease prices in other markets, with negligible average effect.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Jones act should be repealed but the Jones act first order effect on gasoline prices is distorting the relative prices between US Gulf and East Coast. And 60 days are probably too little, even for these relative price effects to obtain.
-see background information here |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't think the system can pivot that fast.
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Effect too small
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nuanced. Could help in California if they can get California blend from the Gulf. The Jones Act currently restricts competition for the CA market. For the rest of the U.S., not so much - nearly all is supplied by pipeline or (U.S.-made) barge.
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Jones Act should be launched into the sun for many reasons. That said, it isn't clear to me suspension will have substantial effects on gas price levels. It might reduce prices a bit in Puerto Rico and Hawaii, and it would reduce any regional price gaps. Is that substantial?
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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IT should help but a temporary lifting may have small effects. Short run supply for shipping may be inelastic (logistical shipping factors)
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure if "average" means average across the country now, or the average across time. If it's the former, I would disagree. If it's the latter, I am uncertain.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Permanent suspension of the J.A. would allow petroleum products to be directed much more flexibly, to places where demand is highest and refineries that can most efficiently process the specific type of product. At present, the Jones Act causes many petroleum-related distortions.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ending the Jones Act would reduce the transportation costs of oil within the US.
-see background information here |
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There still would be some cross-sectional differences
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A sixty day waiver is too short for many of the adjustments firms would make in response to a permanent adjustment.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Jones act should be repealed but the Jones act first order effect on gasoline prices is distorting the relative prices between US Gulf and East Coast.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Permanent repeal would do many good things. It would enable coast-wise shipping to compete with rail and trucks, for instance, as well as providing large benefits to Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Alaska.
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, the impact would be regional. Averaged across the U.S. the effect would be very small. In some locations with inadequate pipelines (CA) there might be long-term adjustments and increased competition.
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See response to #1. Not sure if these gas price effects are particularly horizon sensitive.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Permanent repeal helps equalize prices across areas, but may not have a very large effect on national levels in normal times (plus shipping costs are small fraction of price). However, it could have bigger effects during peaks and crises, lowering volatility.
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The US barely builds non-military ships despite the Jones act. If the US wants a domestic ship manufacturing industry, it will have to get serious about investing in it through stronger industrial policy. Simply blocking competition does little except raise costs.
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I have not noticed that much in the way of national security benefits (support for a more self-sufficient domestic merchant marine fleet), have been achieved by the Jones Act.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If you are worried about climate change then you see higher fuel costs bringing economic benefits.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is evidence that the Jones Act has contributed to the collapse of shipping construction in the US, thus counteracting any intended national security benefits. Jones Act obviously distorts consumer prices and supply chains, especially for HI, AK, and territories.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Most US Navy ships are very different from civilian ships and are produced by shipyards specializing in military ships. The military has contracts with airplane owners that allow the military to get priority during a crisis. Same could be done for Navy supply ships.
-see background information here |
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Large economic costs to Jones Act and negligible security benefits. May be security costs as we are seeing now.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This can't be controversial.
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The Act failed in its purpose and is now a drag on productivity.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We aren't building any ships to speak of anyway so the Jones Act isn't doing what it set out to do - maintain a thriving shipbuilding industry. And this isn't WWII when wartime needed a large merchant marine.
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even with the "protection" of the Jones Act, the US builds a dozen or less large ships (commercial and naval) a year. I make bigger batches of chili. The Jones Act is horrendous rent-seeking; it immiserates regular people for the benefit of a few chosen beneficiaries.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is ironic to supposedly have this Act in place for national security reasons, but suspend it during a war. Free markets and free trade in shipping is best.
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