Question A: Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would lead to a substantial reduction in the numbers of skilled immigrants in the US.

Question B: Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would have a measurably adverse impact on a substantial number of US businesses.

Question A: There is draft legislation in Congress to increase the supply of human kidneys by encouraging donations to strangers: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/2687

It is summarized here: https://www.hawaiibusiness.com/bipartisan-bill-aims-to-prevent-kidney-deaths-by-compensating-donors/

Existing matching markets for kidney exchange have extended the lives of thousands of Americans with kidney disease.

Question B: A one-time $50,000 tax credit for kidney donation to strangers (with the transplants allocated at zero cost to recipients on the basis of waiting times) would save thousands of lives and pay for itself through a reduction in the cost of providing medical care to people suffering from renal failure.

Question C: Allowing hospitals to pay people for kidney donation to strangers would be at least as effective at saving lives and more cost effective than a tax credit.

Question A: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in advanced countries.

Question B: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries.

Question C: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education.

Question A: The New York governor has proposed a pied-à-terre tax to support the New York City mayor’s efforts to close the city’s budget gap: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-pied-terre-tax-proposal-luxury-second-homes-valued-5-million-or-more

Details are starting to emerge: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/nyregion/second-home-tax.html

In the meantime, consider a tax that starts at 0.5% of assessed value over $5 million and rises to 4% of assessed value over $25 million, as in this 2019 proposal: https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2019/S44/amendment/original

An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would raise annual revenues of at least $500 million for the city over the next five years.

Question B: An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would lead to a substantial exodus of businesses and high-net-worth individuals from the city over the next five years.

Question C: An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would make housing substantially more affordable for ordinary New Yorkers over the next five years.

Question A: Independent of any other cuts to public funding of scientific research, a 55% reduction in the budget for the National Science Foundation would have no measurable effect on the well-being of the typical American over the next 10 years.

Question B: Historical federal support for scientific research has paid for itself through a substantial positive effect on long-run US productivity growth.

Question A: The 60-day waiver of the Jones Act (which requires that cargo moved between domestic ports is carried on US vessels) will deliver substantially lower average US gas prices at the pump than otherwise over the next two months.

Question B: Permanent repeal of the Jones Act would have a measurably bigger impact in lowering average US gas prices at the pump than a temporary suspension.

Question C: Any national security benefits from the Jones Act are more than offset by its negative economic effects.

Question A: The release of strategic oil reserves announced by the International Energy Agency will deliver substantially lower US gasoline prices at the pump over the next six months than would otherwise have been the case.

Question B: Assuming that world oil prices over the next six months continue to be elevated and volatile, temporarily suspending the federal gasoline tax would deliver substantially lower gas prices at the pump than otherwise over that period.

Question C: A temporary cap on US gasoline prices would substantially lower prices at the pump over the next six months without creating scarcity.

Question A: US regulation of greenhouse gases – including carbon dioxide from motor vehicles and power plants, and methane from oil and gas wells – rests on the Clean Air Act. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently announced its rescission of the greenhouse gas endangerment finding and motor vehicle greenhouse gas emission standards: https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-rescission-greenhouse-gas-endangerment. The President of the National Academy of Sciences subsequently wrote to the organization's members, noting that 'the EPA justified its decision on legal, economic, and regulatory opinions, and not on the science’.

The weight of economic analysis and evidence supports the conclusion that some form of regulation of greenhouse gas emissions is warranted.

Question B: For US consumers and firms, the health and environmental benefits of greenhouse gas emission standards outweigh the costs, making the EPA rescission substantially net negative for American society.

Question C: Since the environmental costs of greenhouse gas emissions are globally distributed, some form of collective international regulation is warranted.

Question A: Restrictions on large institutional investors buying single-family homes would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership.

Question B: Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership.

Question A: Without extension of the expanded public subsidies for Affordable Care Act healthcare plans, there would be a substantial rise in the number of Americans without health insurance.

Question B: Losses in the health and well-being of Americans who could no longer afford health insurance in the absence of the subsidies would exceed the savings from the expiration.

Question C: The possible need for subsidies substantially in excess of those initially provided by the ACA indicates that other changes in the healthcare system are needed to enable broad-based access.

Question A: The US intervention in Venezuela will have no measurable impact on the world oil price over the next 12 months.

Question B: The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in the profitability of US energy companies over the next five years.

Question C: The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in economic growth in Venezuela over the next five years.

Question A: There are reports that the US strategy in negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict is prioritizing economic interdependence: https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-u-s-peace-business-ties-4db9b290

Creating expanded mutual business opportunities for American, Russian, and Ukrainian firms would lead to a substantially more stable peace agreement.

Question B: Pursuing economic interdependence without complementary diplomacy (including credible guarantees of Ukraine’s future security) is unlikely to end the conflict and subsequently preserve peace.

Adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the next ten years.

Question A: Freezing the rents paid by tenants of all rent-stabilized apartments in New York for four years would substantially improve the availability of affordable housing for low- and middle-income households.

Question B: Freezing the rents paid by tenants of all rent-stabilized apartments in New York for four years would be a substantial deterrent to private housing investment in the city.

Question C: Loosening land-use regulations and other regulation-related constraints on construction in New York (with no rent freeze) would be a substantial boost to private housing investment in the city over the next ten years.

Question A: The combination of scientific progress, technological innovation, and openness to new ideas underpinned the emergence of sustained economic growth in the Industrial Revolution.

Question B: The process of creative destruction – in which innovation continually leads to the disruptive displacement of existing jobs, products, firms, and industries – has been a substantial contributor to sustained economic growth.

Question A: For reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, subsidies for R&D on low-carbon technologies are justified in addition to carbon pricing mechanisms like carbon taxes and cap-and-trade systems.

Question B: Higher subsidies for R&D on low-carbon energy sources are justified by the fact that their successful deployment would not only reduce emissions but also induce developing countries to substitute away from fossil fuels.

Question A: US export controls on advanced semiconductor technology and equipment will contribute substantially to maintaining US technological dominance in the industry over the next ten years.

Question B: US export controls on advanced semiconductor technology and equipment will substantially raise China's presence in the industry over the next ten years.

Question C: In ten years, historians will judge that the US’s current use of sanctions, export restrictions and tariffs in critical sectors substantially improved the median American citizen’s welfare.

Question A: The Federal Reserve should be setting interest rates with the assumption that there will be no measurable effects of US tariffs on inflation by the summer of 2026.

Question B: If Federal Reserve Governor Cook is forced to leave her position, the inflation risk premia on US government debt will rise substantially.

Question A: The OECD’s projected cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from today until the year 2100 is 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2e, compared to 2,734 billion metric tons for the rest of the world - 82% of the total. (Larsen et al, Rhodium Group, 2024: https://climateoutlook.rhg.com/reports/rhodium-climate-outlook-2024-probabilistic-global-emissions-and-energy-projections)

The domestic net benefits of emissions reductions vary substantially across countries because of differences in income levels and exposure to climate risk.

Question B: In the absence of incentives from developed countries, developing countries will not reduce their emissions substantially in places where the private costs of fossil fuels remain meaningfully lower than those of zero-carbon fuels.

Question C: Providing incentives for developing countries to reduce their emissions through penalties (such as a carbon border adjustment mechanism or carbon club) is substantially less effective than providing equivalent incentives through subsidies (such as payments for climate damages in exchange for emissions reductions).

There is no evidence to suggest that the employment estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are biased so as to favor any particular political party.

Question A: Western countries have used interest earned on frozen Russian state assets to finance around $50 billion in loans to the government of Ukraine. There have also been calls to seize the assets in full, currently estimated at around $300 billion.

Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially accelerate the ending of the war.

Question B: Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would, by reducing the burden on Western taxpayers, substantially increase Western voters’ political approval for supporting Ukraine.

Question C: Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially reduce investment in assets denominated in Western currencies and/or increase the likelihood of another country seizing Western sovereign assets in a future conflict.

Question A: If the Fed changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged.

Question B: The Fed’s revised strategy announced in 2020 - focusing on employment shortfalls and with a more flexible interpretation of the inflation target - has made little practical difference to monetary policy outcomes in the past five years.

Question A: The experience of the past 10 years suggests that Western-led economic sanctions do not substantially deter the target countries from their course of action.

Question B: Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, Russia's current military and economic position would be substantially worse.

Question C: Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, the world economy would have faced substantially higher oil prices.

Question A: The potential for consumers to be harmed by digital platforms’ use of their personal data is sufficient that they would benefit from laws assigning them some kind of default control rights over their data.

Question B: The risks of harm from use of social media services - such as harm to mental health, exploitation of children, and more - are now high enough that society would benefit from federal regulations setting safety standards and creating a process of compensation for harm by digital platforms.

Question A: Long-run US fiscal sustainability will require some combination of slowing the growth of spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases, including higher taxes on households with incomes below $400,000.

Question B: Issuing an additional $2.3 trillion of debt over the next 10 years, as is projected by the Congressional Budget Office if the House Reconciliation Bill is enacted, will substantially raise interest rates on government debt over that period.

Question A: A sustained decline in the dollar's market share in the global economy will mean that US consumers are substantially worse off than they otherwise would be.

Question B: A permanently weaker dollar would substantially raise the US government's cost of financing its deficits.

Question A: The current antitrust laws and regulations in the United States are inadequate for preventing digital platform firms from engaging in acquisitions and exclusionary conduct that harm competition.

Question B: Background on the Digital Markets Act: https://digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu/index_en

Digital markets would work better if, in a manner broadly similar to the European Union’s Digital Markets Act, criteria were established to designate some large firms as 'gatekeepers' and a regulatory body was established to govern the business practices of those gatekeepers.

Question A: The cancellation of the majority of programs run by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) will have no measurable effects on GDP growth in the recipient countries over the next five years.

Question B: The cancellation of the majority of USAID programs will have substantially negative effects on the most vulnerable people in the recipient countries over the next five years.

Question C: Development assistance motivated by the potential benefits for the donors in terms of prosperity and security is measurably more effective in promoting GDP growth in recipient countries than aid based on humanitarian or other moral principles.

Question A: The termination of the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Council and shrinking staff at the core US statistical agencies will lead to a substantial reduction in the reliability of government economic data.

Question B: The quality of economic policy-making will be substantially impaired by reduced funding for the core US statistical agencies.

Question C: The ability of businesses to forecast and plan will be substantially impaired by lower quality economic data.

Question A: Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit.

Question B: The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war.

Question C: In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover.

Question A: The president has signed an executive order that pauses enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially increase global levels of bribery and corruption.

Question B: Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially improve US businesses' long-term profits and long-term competitiveness.

Question A: The new administration has issued three executive orders related to energy and climate:

Declaring a National Energy Emergency: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declaring-a-national-energy-emergency/
'The United States’ insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to our Nation’s economy, national security, and foreign policy. In light of these findings, I hereby declare a national emergency.'

Insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitute a substantial threat to the US economy.

Question B: Unleashing American Energy: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-american-energy/
'The calculation of the “social cost of carbon” is marked by logical deficiencies, a poor basis in empirical science, politicization, and the absence of a foundation in legislation… rendering the United States economy internationally uncompetitive… the Administrator of the EPA shall issue guidance to address these harmful and detrimental inadequacies, including consideration of eliminating the “social cost of carbon” calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision.'

Eliminating the ‘social cost of carbon’ calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision would substantially improve the international competitiveness of the US economy.

Question C: Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/
'In recent years, the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country’s values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives… The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit formal written notification of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.'

Withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will deliver a measurable boost to US economic growth over the next four years.

Question A: California's insurance industry regulator issued statements shortly before and shortly after the recent wildfires started (on December 30, 2024, and January 9, 2025):
https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2024/release065-2024.cfm

https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2025/release005-2025.cfm

In the face of growing wildfire risks, price caps on insurance premiums have substantially reduced the viability of private property insurance markets in California.

Question B: A mandatory one-year moratorium on insurance non-renewals and cancellations would lead to a substantial longer-term reduction in the supply of private home insurance products and the number of households that are insured against catastrophic risk in areas of California affected by recent wildfires.

Question A: Doubling existing tariffs on imports from China of critical production components in solar energy manufacturing will provide a substantial boost to employment in the domestic 'cleantech' sector over the next five years.

Question B: Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years.

Given that much of the Department of Education's budget is allocated to postsecondary education (including Pell grants and student loans), closing the department would have no measurable effect on the average K to 12th grade school student.

Link: https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/USDeptOfEducation_2024_Appropriations.pdf

Question A: The Trustees of the U.S. Social Security system currently estimate that the OASI trust fund will be exhausted in 2033, after which substantial benefit cuts are mandated without a change in the law.

The response to the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund is likely to rely more on general government borrowing than on increases in social security taxes or reductions in social security benefits.

Question B: As in the most recent major change in Social Security finances (adopted in 1983), the most prudent way to address the impending exhaustion of the OASI trust fund would feature a balanced combination of payroll tax increases and reductions in the benefits received for any given retirement age.

Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.

Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.

Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.

Question A: The Democrats and Republicans have floated the idea of a US sovereign wealth fund. For background, see here and here.

Establishing a domestic sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors would bring substantial benefits to the US economy over a ten-year horizon.

Question B: The typical advanced economy could substantially boost growth by establishing a sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors.

Question C: For a typical advanced economy, establishing a sovereign wealth fund would be substantially better for citizens relative to paying down the debt as a use for excess revenue.

Question A: Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years.

Question B: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years.

Question C: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years.

Question A: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade.

Question B: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade.

Question C: In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent.

Question A: The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth.

Question B: All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy.

Question C: The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital.

Question A: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to lead to substantially lower prices of AI products and services for businesses and consumers.

Question B: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to promote greater competition and innovation in AI.

Question C: Potential harms from artificial intelligence are better assessed by market deployment rather than seeking to slow the pace of AI research and implementation.

Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.

Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US.

Question C: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.

Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would lead to measurably higher social welfare.

Question A: Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years.

Question B: Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.

Question C: The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.

Universities that abandon temporary pandemic test-optional policies and return to requiring standardized test scores for admissions will create measurably enhanced opportunities for potentially high-achieving students from low-income backgrounds.

Question A: The FTC is opposed to Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons. Critics argue that with sufficient divestitures, the deal would be consistent with past FTC policies.

Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would lead to substantially higher grocery prices and/or lower product quality/services for customers of the two companies in locations where both are present.

Question B: Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would have a substantially negative effect on workers at the two companies in locations where both are present.

Question A: Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US retirees.

Question B: Allowing imports of medicines from Canada will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US consumers without compromising safety.

Question A: A tolling program for New York City is out for public consultation with proposed charges on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan summarized here: https://new.mta.info/document/129191

The proposed tolls on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial reduction in traffic congestion in the targeted area.

Question B: The proposed tolls on vehicles entering Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial increase in traffic congestion just outside the central business district, above 60th Street, in the outer boroughs and New Jersey.

Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.

Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.