Question A:
Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has experienced substantially lower growth than it would have done had it remained in the European Union.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The UK would be substantially richer ten years from now if it immediately began negotiations and domestic preparations with the aim of fully rejoining the European Union.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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UK took completely the wrong path. Once out of EU, should have moved to deregulate and copy the U.S. Instead, implemented low growth / regulatory policies, e.g., in energy, and got no benefit from leaving, only cost.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The evidence is well identified, as are the channels. Lower investment, lost productivity coming from dealing with the transition. Compare Northern Ireland which has retained access and other countries. Also promised windfalls never delivered. An epic own goal.
-see background information here |
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The UK has experienced the disadvantages of leaving the EU, without the supposed advantages (such as a special relationship with the US) materializing.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See Bloom et al. "The Economic Impact of Brexit" for convincing evidence.
-see background information here |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The "substantial" bar is a high one.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Counterfactuals like these are particularly difficult to do with confidence, but my reading of the lackluster performance of UK economy tilts me towards a sizable effect. The loss in welfare may be greater (trade benefits are not captured by GDP only)
-see background information here |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rejoining the EU is not a magic cure. The U.K. has other problems to solve that are at least as important. Fixing these problems should be done in conjunction with achieving closer ties to Europe.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, the UK has an opportunity to be different from the EU which is unlikely to be able to deregulate. If the UK took that opportunity, it would do better. If it goes back to the EU, more of the same.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Deal will be worse than what they had, the negotiations will take time and distract from other issues, and then reversing the laws etc will take more time. Being more aligned would be better, but trade is only one factor holding back growth. Focus on domestic growth agenda.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Much depends on the terms with which a skeptical EU would allow readmission.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Although UK would eventually benefit for being part of the EU, specially after the Trump shock, negotiations are likely to be difficult and increase uncertainty for economic agents for a long period.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The harm is done. Trying to reenter the EU would create a new decade of uncertainty. And since we now all know Brexit can happen, uncertainty won't end after reascension
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm sure there could be some asymmetries so negative effect perhaps not completely reversible (and UK will never get back what it lost)
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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At this point I think efforts to improve the regulatory rules internally are likely to have a higher payoff. Hard to undue a stupid breakup.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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