A substantial portion of the increase in yields is caused by the increased supply of government bonds, even after controlling for inflation and sovereign default risk.
Some degree of potentially growth-constraining policies on trade, investment and/or migration is necessary to limit the further rise of populist movements in Europe.
This US survey examines (a) Economic insecurity is a more important driver of the recent rise of populist movements than voters’ concerns about national culture and identity; (b) Populist movements that achieve electoral success lead to a substantial slowdown in economic growth; (c) Some degree of potentially growth-constraining policies on trade, investment and/or migration is necessary to limit the further rise of populist movements
Defense spending is on the rise globally. As the IMF noted in April: ..over 2020–24, 50 percent of countries worldwide increased their defense spending budgets and, as of 2024, almost 40 percent allocated more than 2 percent of GDP to defense spending, compared with 27 percent in 2018. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research […]
This US survey examines (a) Defense procurement that invites potential suppliers to propose technologies with potential military benefits rather than requiring them to meet tightly specified government requirements would generate substantially stronger military capabilities; (b) Defense procurement that enables start-up firms and other new entrants to participate (either as sole contractors or jointly with others, including incumbents) would generate substantially more innovation in military capabilities than directing spending predominantly towards incumbent contractors
Over the last couple of weeks, AI risk seems to have gone mainstream. Social media was set abuzz when some current and former Anthropic employees noted that they genuinely believed that there was a real risk of an AI disaster wiping out the human race. That led, understandably enough, to all sorts of coverage across […]
This Finance survey examines (a) The AI-led boom in investment and growth has substantially increased the exposure of the economy and the stock market to a single concentrated source of tail risk; (b) The use of financing from technology suppliers such as Nvidia to support investments in AI infrastructure substantially increases the financial risks associated with the AI-led boom
This European survey examines (a) Defense procurement that invites potential suppliers to propose technologies with potential military benefits rather than requiring them to meet tightly specified government requirements would generate substantially stronger military capabilities; (b) Defense procurement that enables start-up firms and other new entrants to participate (either as sole contractors or jointly with others, including incumbents) would generate substantially more innovation in military capabilities than directing spending predominantly towards incumbent contractors
This US survey examines (a) Government restrictions on insurance premiums are preventing insurance prices from fully reflecting the increasing physical risks associated with climate change; (b) By preventing climate-related risks from being fully reflected in insurance prices, government interventions are encouraging economic activity in areas that are increasingly exposed to extreme weather
