Finance

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Regulation

The Biden Administration's recommendation to lower the real discount rate used in the cost and benefit analysis of federal regulations to 2 percent (from the current levels of 3 or 7 percent) will substantially improve regulatory analysis.

 
Europe

Argentina

Question A:

The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank.

Question B:

Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP.

 
US

Argentina

This US survey examines a) The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank; (b) Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP 
FT-Booth US Macroeconomists Survey

FTxBooth: Fed to keep rates high?

This installment of the FTxBooth US Macroeconomists Survey discusses how long the current rates are likely to remain in place as well as possible labor market conditions moving through 2024. The summary results are below and you can read the Financial Times article here, subscription required. View the results of this survey >> For social […] 
Europe

Public Corporations

This European survey examines (a) It is best for society if the management of publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these effects feedback to affect shareholder wealth;  (b) The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value 
US

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017

This US survey examines (a) US GDP is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (b) Corporate capital stock is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (c) Real median wages are substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (d) Federal tax revenues are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal; (e) Charitable donations are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal. 
Finance

Modern Portfolio Theory

This Finance survey examines that Harry Markowitz, the Nobel Prize-winning pioneer of modern portfolio theory, passed away earlier this year: https://afajof.org/news/in-memoriam-harry-markowitz-past-president-of-the-american-finance-association-1927-2023/ (a) Application of the principles of modern portfolio theory allows investors in practice to achieve substantial improvements in the risk-expected return trade-off relative to naive strategies such as equal-weighting that do not take account of return covariances; (b) A continued fall in commercial real estate valuations would trigger another round of banking panic 
Finance

Quantitative Tightening and Demand for US Treasuries

This Finance survey examines (a) The Federal Reserve has begun quantitative tightening (QT) to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Fed holdings of Treasury securities have declined by $800 billion relative to the March 2020 peak. The Fed currently holds $4.9 trillion of Treasury securities, significantly larger than the $2.5 trillion holdings prior to the Covid pandemic. A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases the interest rate on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (b) A reduction in Fed holdings of Treasury securities measurably increases volatility in the Treasury market