Europe

Trade Policy

Question A:

A baseline US tariff of 10% on all European imported goods would have substantially damaging economic consequences for many countries in Europe.

Question B:

Rather than responding to threatened tariffs with retaliatory measures, unilaterally opening EU markets to US exports would deliver better outcomes for European industry.

Question C:

Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years.

 
US

Wildfires

This US survey examines (a) California's insurance industry regulator issued statements shortly before and shortly after the recent wildfires started (on December 30, 2024, and January 9, 2025): https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2024/release065-2024.cfm; https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2025/release005-2025.cfm In the face of growing wildfire risks, price caps on insurance premiums have substantially reduced the viability of private property insurance markets in California; (b) A mandatory one-year moratorium on insurance non-renewals and cancellations would lead to a substantial longer-term reduction in the supply of private home insurance products and the number of households that are insured against catastrophic risk in areas of California affected by recent wildfires

  
Finance

Wildfires

This Finance survey examines (a) California's insurance industry regulator issued statements shortly before and shortly after the recent wildfires started (on December 30, 2024, and January 9, 2025): https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2024/release065-2024.cfm; https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2025/release005-2025.cfm In the face of growing wildfire risks, price caps on insurance premiums have substantially reduced the viability of private property insurance markets in California; (b) A mandatory one-year moratorium on insurance non-renewals and cancellations would lead to a substantial longer-term reduction in the supply of private home insurance products and the number of households that are insured against catastrophic risk in areas of California affected by recent wildfires. 
On Global Markets

A Private Party?

It can be all too easy for both investors and those writing about finance and economics to get too caught up in the day-by-day and week-by-week moves of financial markets. The drama of sudden gyrations, rallies, and declines is sometimes irresistible and there is always a risk that too much significance will be attached to […] 
On Global Markets

Bond Turbulence

It is never a good sign for finance ministers when bond market moves make the front pages of the non-financial press. That is what has happened this week in Britain as the rising yield on gilts (as British sovereign bonds are rather quaintly sometimes dubbed) rose to multi-year highs. The yield on ten year British […]