One peril of writing a column entitled ‘On Global Markets’ is that those global markets have an annoying tendency to move about. Sovereign bond yields are a case in point. Over the last few months, the yield on government bonds has been heading up – sometimes at an alarming rate. Only for them to suddenly […]
A substantial portion of the increase in yields is caused by the increased supply of government bonds, even after controlling for inflation and sovereign default risk.
This European survey examines (a) Economic insecurity is a more important driver of the recent rise of populist movements than voters’ concerns about national culture and identity; (b) Populist movements that achieve electoral success lead to a substantial slowdown in economic growth; (c) Some degree of potentially growth-constraining policies on trade, investment and/or migration is necessary to limit the further rise of populist movements in Europe
This US survey examines (a) Economic insecurity is a more important driver of the recent rise of populist movements than voters’ concerns about national culture and identity; (b) Populist movements that achieve electoral success lead to a substantial slowdown in economic growth; (c) Some degree of potentially growth-constraining policies on trade, investment and/or migration is necessary to limit the further rise of populist movements
Defense spending is on the rise globally. As the IMF noted in April: ..over 2020–24, 50 percent of countries worldwide increased their defense spending budgets and, as of 2024, almost 40 percent allocated more than 2 percent of GDP to defense spending, compared with 27 percent in 2018. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research […]
This US survey examines (a) Defense procurement that invites potential suppliers to propose technologies with potential military benefits rather than requiring them to meet tightly specified government requirements would generate substantially stronger military capabilities; (b) Defense procurement that enables start-up firms and other new entrants to participate (either as sole contractors or jointly with others, including incumbents) would generate substantially more innovation in military capabilities than directing spending predominantly towards incumbent contractors
Over the last couple of weeks, AI risk seems to have gone mainstream. Social media was set abuzz when some current and former Anthropic employees noted that they genuinely believed that there was a real risk of an AI disaster wiping out the human race. That led, understandably enough, to all sorts of coverage across […]
This Finance survey examines (a) The AI-led boom in investment and growth has substantially increased the exposure of the economy and the stock market to a single concentrated source of tail risk; (b) The use of financing from technology suppliers such as Nvidia to support investments in AI infrastructure substantially increases the financial risks associated with the AI-led boom
This European survey examines (a) Defense procurement that invites potential suppliers to propose technologies with potential military benefits rather than requiring them to meet tightly specified government requirements would generate substantially stronger military capabilities; (b) Defense procurement that enables start-up firms and other new entrants to participate (either as sole contractors or jointly with others, including incumbents) would generate substantially more innovation in military capabilities than directing spending predominantly towards incumbent contractors
