US

AI, Work, and Education

Question A:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in advanced countries.

Question B:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries.

Question C:

Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education.

 
Europe

European Merger Rules

This European survey examines (a) The EU's rules on corporate mergers have been a substantial constraint on productivity growth in Europe; (b) Loosening the EU’s rules on corporate mergers would provide a substantial boost to the emergence of European champions able to compete effectively in the global economy; (c) In terms of promoting stronger European economic growth, looser merger rules would be substantially less effective than completing the single market, including the creation of a ‘28th regime’ of corporate rules 
US

Pied-a-Terre Tax

This US survey examines: The New York governor has proposed a pied-à-terre tax to support the New York City mayor’s efforts to close the city’s budget gap: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-pied-terre-tax-proposal-luxury-second-homes-valued-5-million-or-more

Details are starting to emerge: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/nyregion/second-home-tax.html

In the meantime, consider a tax that starts at 0.5% of assessed value over $5 million and rises to 4% of assessed value over $25 million, as in this 2019 proposal: https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2019/S44/amendment/original (a) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would raise annual revenues of at least $500 million for the city over the next five years; (b) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would lead to a substantial exodus of businesses and high-net-worth individuals from the city over the next five years; (c) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would make housing substantially more affordable for ordinary New Yorkers over the next five years 
On Global Markets

Prediction Markets – Value and Regulation

Prediction markets, exchanges where market participants can trade contracts based on unknown future events such as sports results or the outcomes of elections, are booming. One recent report looked at trading volumes over the past few years and came complete with a rather striking chart. (The final data point on this chart represents partially month […] 
Finance

Prediction Markets

This Finance survey examines (a) Prediction markets provide substantially more accurate forecasts of key macro-financial variables than traditional sources such as surveys of professional forecasters; (b) Retail market participants would be measurably better off if sports contracts on prediction markets were regulated more like gambling than like financial derivatives 
On Global Markets

Buy European?

The polls carried out by the Clark Center’s various Expert Panels are always interesting, but they are rarely that surprising. Last week’s poll of the European Experts Panel was an exception. As Patrick Honohan of Trinity College Dublin put it, “I never thought it would come to this. But it has”. The panel was asked […] 
US

Science Funding

This US survey examines (a) Independent of any other cuts to public funding of scientific research, a 55% reduction in the budget for the National Science Foundation would have no measurable effect on the well-being of the typical American over the next 10 years; (b) Historical federal support for scientific research has paid for itself through a substantial positive effect on long-run US productivity growth