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This week the Fed hiked rates. This was hardly unexpected given that inflation remains above target, that growth looks solid, and that continuing inflationary pressures are very apparent. In such circumstances, a hold – whatever the President might desire – would have been much more noteworthy. 75% of respondents to the latest FTxBooth US Macroeconomists […] 

In anticipation of today’s FOMC press conference, the FTxBooth US Macroeconomists Survey panel explores the possible next steps the Fed could take. The summary results are below and you can read the Financial Times article here, subscription required. View the results of this survey>> For social media: Please use the hashtag #FTxBooth when referring to […] 

Possibly the single best purchase your British-based columnist has ever made was buying a portable air conditioning unit around three years and a half ago. It was not cheap to buy, nor is it cheap to run, and it generally spends most of the year in a cupboard. It was acquired in the winter of […] 

This European survey examines (a) This summer's extreme weather in Europe will lead to substantial upward revisions to assessments of the near-term economic costs of the physical risks from climate change; (b) Because current emissions reductions will have little effect on the climate experienced during today’s voters’ lifetimes, this summer’s extreme weather events in Europe are unlikely to persuade people to vote for more ambitious near-term climate policy; (c) Upward revisions of insurance premiums for physical risks associated with climate change following this summer's extreme weather events in Europe would indicate that insurance and reinsurance markets have historically underpriced those risks 

On one level the much-anticipated speech of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole conference was not especially surprising. The key message, after all, was that with inflation remaining elevated, ‘we have work to do’. To investors, that sounded like an acknowledgement that interest rates would likely be heading up. And, given that inflation […] 

Ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, this snap poll of the FTxBooth US Macroeconomists Survey panel discusses the first few months of Kevin Warsh’s term as Fed Chairman. The summary results are below and you can read the Financial Times article here, subscription required. View the results of this survey>> For social media: […] 

Voters, as they have made clear over the last few years, hate inflation. And to most of the general public, it appears that ‘inflation’ does not just mean the pace of year on year prices rises but something about the level of prices. People would generally, and understandably, like things to be cheaper – especially […] 

One consequence of the more tumultuous geopolitical environment of the 2020s has been a material rise in global defense spending, and one that looks set to continue. As the IMF noted in its World Economic Outlook this April: After decades of declining global defense spending, rising geopolitical risks and more frequent military conflicts are pushing […]