Question A:
In a world in which most economic powers have programmes that give preference to their own strategic resources – for example, the Chinese have ‘Made in China’, and the Americans have ‘Buy American’ – the EU’s strategic independence would be substantially enhanced by establishing some form of European preference in public procurement in selected sectors.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
A ‘Buy European’ programme of public procurement in selected sectors could be implemented in a way that would deliver greater EU innovation and growth over the next five years than in the absence of such a programme.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This makes a lot of sense in the defence industry and other related industries. But in many of the remaining industries competition, often foreign competition, is an important driver of minimising costs and improving welfare.
|
||||
 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
as much discussed: the case is strong on paper, dangerous in practice.
|
||||
 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Economic efficiency is no longer the only criterion. Europe must build resilience for key inputs. The latter must be defined narrowly, though.
|
||||
 Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I tend to agree but with a lot of hesitancy: requires that appropriate content is given to "some form" of European preference
|
||||
 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It very much depends on how the policy is articulated, whether it affects certain key sectors or all.
|
||||
 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I never thought it would come to this. But it has.
|
||||
 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
For strategic independence, it is desired to rely on sourcing in specific areas, like defense, but also communication services, as well as financial infrastructure, that cannot be instrumentalized in a strategic way by non-European decision makers
|
||||
 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
In principle, I see the strategic independence argument in a few critical areas but there is always the concern that this preference will be misused for protectionism or exploited by industry to obtain quasi subsidies. How to implement this well is the key question.
|
||||
 Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I am not sure of the "substantially" in the question, but I can see a point in raising strategic independence through this European preference on public procurement, if those strategic goods are associated with static and/or dynamic returns to scale
|
||||
 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
In an idealized work with a "benevolent social planner", agree. But with lobbying and capture by powerful industries, then uncertain. I would have to see the details of how it is done.
|
||||
 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Inefficient procurement is costly. Resilience of supply is part of efficiency in some sectors but "European preference" is poorly targeted on that.
|
||||
 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Chinese success in displacing US and European companies in the Electric Vehicle, Solar cell, and Wind turbine industries suggests this is an important policy. The space industry is another area where Europe risks being displaced.
|
||||
|
Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
with the same caveat.
|
||||
|
Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Provided there is enough intra-European competition.
|
||||
|
Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A procurement preference could help to establish a local European industry in areas in which these industries are absent today, like defense and financial infrastructure.
|
||||
|
Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is the key question and the answer is uncertain. For innovation and growth (which is different from strategic independence) it might be better to support critical sectors, like defense, with public R&D spending and open-award procurement programs. See evidence below.
-see background information here |
||||
|
Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Key word is "could" so I agree. Whether it "would" is much more uncertain.
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
But the devil is in the details...
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Whereas industrial policy in principle could be used to Europe's advantage, it is in practice difficult to get the policy right. Most likely, protectionist policies would end up hurting innovation and growth in Europe
|
||||
|
Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
