Question A: The release of strategic oil reserves announced by the International Energy Agency will deliver substantially lower prices for vehicle fuels over the next six months than would otherwise have been the case.

Question B: Assuming that world commodity prices over the next six months continue to be elevated and volatile, temporarily subsidising or capping natural gas prices would be an effective way to protect European households and businesses from high energy bills.

Question C: The vulnerability of the European economy to high and volatile fossil fuel prices indicates the need for stronger incentives to promote decarbonisation rather than rowing back on policy support for the energy transition.

Question A: US regulation of greenhouse gases – including carbon dioxide from motor vehicles and power plants, and methane from oil and gas wells – rests on the Clean Air Act. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently announced its rescission of the greenhouse gas endangerment finding and motor vehicle greenhouse gas emission standards: https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-rescission-greenhouse-gas-endangerment. The President of the National Academy of Sciences subsequently wrote to the organization's members, noting that 'the EPA justified its decision on legal, economic, and regulatory opinions, and not on the science’.

The weight of economic analysis and evidence supports the conclusion that some form of regulation of greenhouse gas emissions is warranted.

Question B: For US consumers and firms, the health and environmental benefits of greenhouse gas emission standards outweigh the costs, making the EPA rescission substantially net negative for American society.

Question C: Since the environmental costs of greenhouse gas emissions are globally distributed, some form of collective international regulation is warranted.

Question A: Without a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), Europe risks a further loss of control over its monetary system to foreign payment service providers, including US Big Tech platforms and US stablecoin issuers.

Question B: Without a credible, modern wholesale settlement solution in central bank money - whether via a wholesale CBDC or equivalent infrastructure - Europe risks a further erosion of payments autonomy.

Question A: The US intervention in Venezuela will have no measurable impact on the world oil price over the next 12 months.

Question B: The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in the profitability of US energy companies over the next five years.

Question C: The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in economic growth in Venezuela over the next five years.

Question A: The potential for consumer privacy to be compromised by digital platforms’ use of personal data is sufficient to justify regulations that assign consumers some kind of default control rights over their data.

Question B: To date, EU efforts to regulate use of personal data - primarily the General Data Protection Regulation, GDPR - have been largely ineffective at protecting consumers.

Question C: To date, EU efforts to regulate use of personal data - primarily GDPR - have imposed substantial costs on European businesses, slowing innovation and growth.

Question A: Adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the next ten years.

Question B: Adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in the US and Western Europe over the next ten years.

Question A: For reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, subsidies for R&D on low-carbon technologies are justified in addition to carbon pricing mechanisms like carbon taxes and cap-and-trade systems.

Question B: Higher subsidies for R&D on low-carbon technologies are justified by the fact that their successful deployment would not only reduce emissions in OECD countries but also reduce developing countries' emissions by encouraging them to substitute away from fossil fuels.

Question A: The combination of scientific progress, technological innovation, and openness to new ideas underpinned the emergence of sustained economic growth in the Industrial Revolution.

Question B: The process of creative destruction – in which innovation continually leads to the disruptive displacement of existing jobs, products, firms, and industries – has been a substantial contributor to sustained economic growth.

Question A: Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz has recently called for the Russian central bank’s assets that are frozen in Europe to be made available for the defense of Ukraine: https://www.ft.com/content/3aacc930-9f5e-4558-90f1-62bf47a31cd5

Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially accelerate the ending of the war.

Question B: Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially reduce investment in assets issued by European economies.

Question C: Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially increase the likelihood of another country seizing Western sovereign assets in a future conflict.

Question A: If the European Central Bank changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged.

Question B: There is a substantial benefit to having higher average inflation and by implication a higher nominal interest rate so as to avoid hitting the zero lower bound.

Question C: The fact that the Eurozone encompasses 20 countries – and thus the European Central Bank has 20 masters rather than one like the US Federal Reserve – eliminates the risk of fiscal dominance.

Question A: The OECD’s projected cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from today until the year 2100 is 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2e, compared to 2,734 billion metric tons for the rest of the world - 82% of the total. (Larsen et al, Rhodium Group, 2024: https://climateoutlook.rhg.com/reports/rhodium-climate-outlook-2024-probabilistic-global-emissions-and-energy-projections)

The domestic net benefits of emissions reductions vary substantially across countries because of differences in income levels and exposure to climate risk.

Question B: In the absence of incentives from developed countries, developing countries will not reduce their emissions substantially in places where the private costs of fossil fuels remain meaningfully lower than those of zero-carbon fuels.

Question C: Providing incentives for developing countries to reduce their emissions through penalties (such as a carbon border adjustment mechanism or carbon club) is substantially less effective than providing equivalent incentives through subsidies (such as payments for climate damages in exchange for emissions reductions).

Question A: The risks of harm from use of social media services - such as harm to mental health, exploitation of children, and more - are sufficient to justify regulations setting safety standards and creating a process of compensation for harm by digital platforms.

Question B: To date, EU efforts to address harm from use of social media services - primarily the Digital Services Act - have been largely ineffective at protecting consumers.

Question A: The experience of the past 10 years suggests that Western-led economic sanctions do not substantially deter the target countries from their course of action.

Question B: Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, Russia's current military and economic position would be substantially worse.

Question C: Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, the world economy would have faced substantially higher oil prices.

Question A: Creating a ‘28th regime’ - an optional, EU-wide code of corporate, securities and insolvency law that firms could adopt and which would pre-empt the application of any of the 27 national rulebooks - would be substantially more effective in building a European capital market than continuing efforts to achieve harmonisation of the national rulebooks.

Question B: Creating the 28th regime would substantially increase the supply of capital to new ventures and growing businesses.

Question C: A well-functioning and efficient single EU capital market requires a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, to operate as a single market regulator.

Question A: The high cost of electricity for industrial users in the European Union relative to other big economies is a substantial constraint on growth.

Question B: Problems with the intermittency of renewable energy sources mean that over the next five years, electricity prices are more likely to rise than fall.

Question C: Substantial European investment in electricity infrastructure is essential to address high prices and unreliable supply.

New funding and immigration schemes to attract top scientific talent from abroad to EU universities would have a measurable impact on European innovation over a five year horizon.

Question A: The reductions in Western programs of development assistance will have no measurable effects on GDP growth in the recipient countries over the next five years.

Question B: The reductions in Western programs of development assistance will have substantially negative effects on the most vulnerable people in the recipient countries over the next five years.

Question C: Development assistance motivated by the potential benefits for the donors in terms of prosperity and security is measurably more effective in promoting GDP growth in recipient countries than aid based on humanitarian or other moral principles.

Question A: Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit.

Question B: The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war.

Question C: In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover.

Question A: The wave of immigration to Germany after 2015 (and up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine) has been a net positive for the country's economy.

Question B: Immigration to EU countries has been a net positive for government finances, adding substantially more in tax revenues than the increased costs associated with integration of immigrants.

Question C: Given Europe's low and falling fertility rates (from seven million births per year in 1960 to four million today), maintaining its position as a world economic power will require increased immigration over the medium term.

Question A: Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/
'In recent years, the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country's values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives... The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit formal written notification of the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.'

US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will deliver a measurable boost to the country's economic growth over the next four years.

Question B: US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will have a measurably negative impact on international progress on mitigation of global warming.

Question A: A baseline US tariff of 10% on all European imported goods would have substantially damaging economic consequences for many countries in Europe.

Question B: Rather than responding to threatened tariffs with retaliatory measures, unilaterally opening EU markets to US exports would deliver better outcomes for European industry.

Question C: Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years.

Question A: The likely need for increased European public investment in defense should come with substantial reallocations of public budgets at the national and EU levels.

Question B: Greater use of joint EU-level procurement of military equipment and defense research/innovation would promote substantially enhanced capacity in Europe's defense industry.

Question C: Increased defense spending would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth in Europe over the next five years.

On the basis of current climate policy commitments and potential technology and market responses, my current best estimate for global warming is that average global temperatures by 2100 will rise to no more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Question A: A period of high inflation is substantially more electorally damaging to incumbent governments in advanced countries than a period of high unemployment.

Question B: Voters are more likely to punish incumbents for what they perceive as poor national economic performance than they are to reward incumbents for a good economy.

Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.

Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.

Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.

Question A: Current enforcement of competition policy in Europe is not working to promote innovation and growth.

Question B: European Union bureaucracy and regulations are a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe.

Question C: The conduct of the dominant US tech companies in European markets (including lobbying and acquisition of start-ups and competitors) is a substantial constraint on innovation in Europe.

Question A: In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, the average public company generates more benefits than costs in terms of profits.

Question B: In pursuing social and environmental initiatives, public companies would benefit from a measurably lower cost of capital.

Question C: There are substantial social benefits when managers of public companies make choices that account for the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members beyond the effects on shareholders.

Question A: US antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are warranted by the need to foster competition and innovation in the technologies.

Question B: Seeking to slow the pace of artificial intelligence use and implementation would be a more effective means of assessing potential harms from the technologies than market deployment and ex post assessment.

Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.

Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.

Question C: Unless the EU matches the proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs, there would be measurably lower employment in Europe's automotive industry over the next five years.

Question A: Greater integration of national markets for financial services, energy and telecommunications would give a measurable boost to Europe’s GDP over the next ten years.

Question B: The potential benefits for GDP from loosening European merger rules to allow greater consolidation within the single market would outweigh the potential harm to consumers from weaker competition.

Question A:

Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would lead to a substantial shift in the balance of companies listing their shares in the EU vis-a-vis the US.

Question B: Creation of a more unified capital market in Europe - with a common pool of capital, a single rule book and a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission – would substantially increase the availability of funding for start-ups and growing companies across the EU.

Question A: The European Union's AI Act was approved by the European Parliament in March 2024: https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/the-act/

The EU's legislation to regulate artificial intelligence is likely to put European technology firms at a substantial disadvantage to their competitors elsewhere in the world.

Question B: By providing a clear set of rules, the EU's legislation on artificial intelligence is likely to enhance research and innovation by firms building the new technology.

Question A: Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency.

Question B: With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances.

A legalized and carefully regulated market for cannabis would lead to measurably higher social welfare than a system of prohibition.

Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.

Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.

Question A: A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances.

Question B: Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition.

Question A:

The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank.

Question B: Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP.

Question A: It is best for society if the management of publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these effects feedback to affect shareholder wealth.

Question B: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.