Question A:
The EU's rules on corporate mergers have been a substantial constraint on productivity growth in Europe.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Loosening the EU’s rules on corporate mergers would provide a substantial boost to the emergence of European champions able to compete effectively in the global economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
In terms of promoting stronger European economic growth, looser merger rules would be substantially less effective than completing the single market, including the creation of a ‘28th regime’ of corporate rules.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's difficult to say how effective they have been in terms of the trade-off between monopoly power, profitability and growth. They don't seem to have done a good job in controlling US tech companies monopoly power, for example.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A contributor, but other regulations matter a lot, probably more.
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 Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In fact, most mergers have been authorized in the EU.
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 Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The rules have not prevented significant Europe wide mergers but national mergers.
The intended consolidation of national telco markets would be a big mistake for competition and growth.
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 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The exercise of national discretion on competition policy seems likely to have been a more significant factor.
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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While I think that a lack of mergers is a reason for low growth in Germany, its cause is not anti-trust legislation, but rather the diversity of regulation,, supervision and corporate law across European states.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If anything, evidence points in opposite direction: Stricter merger rules enhance productivity growth, incl. for Europe. Weaker rules could also enable killer acquisition hurting prod growth & innovation. That does imply that merger review couldn't be improved or made sharper.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do think the interpretation of market power has sometimes been too strict, but how significant this has been is a different question.
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Measured productivity maybe. But just higher markups for corporates are not growth
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again difficult to say. Because of lack of innovation, it seems unlikely Europe will develop globally competitive firms. Allowing Chinese firms to enter and encouraging joint ventures as seems to be happening in the car industry may be a better way to go.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The world economy has changed...
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Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is no empirical evidence showing that loosening the EU’s rules on corporate mergers would provide a boost to the emergence of European champions.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very hard to say. These rules have also had an effect on non-European firms.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Loosening merger rules will help building Europe-.wide enterprises, particularly in industries relying on economies to scale in production, like banking, biotech and pharmaceutical.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Loosening likely boost emergence of larger firms. However, unclear whether these firms would compete more effective globally. Evidence that these larger firms likely increase markups, implying EU consumers would pay the price. More active mkt for corp assets could be positive.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Particularly in the financial sector. E.g. in creating European exchanges with sufficient liquidity to compete with the US.
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Monopolistic European champions are unlikely to compete globally.
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree that creating a single market is a good way to go and maybe it is desirable to have 28th regime. Perhaps more important is the creation of a single market in services, not just manufactured goods.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am not an expert on this, and whether there is an academic literature on it, but I have met a few young entrepreneurs that mention the lack of a true single market as the main driver of their exodus to the US.
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Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both conditions, looser merger rules and completing the single market, are complementary. Both add to competitiveness of European enterprises.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree with this aspiration. But it of course depends on the implementation of the rules that govern that single market
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am very much in favor of the 28th regime, though.
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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