This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statement:
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
This Finance survey examines (a) The large demand of passive investors for shares in SpaceX in the days after the IPO will cause substantial overvaluation of the stock; (b) Rebalancing of investors’ portfolios to make room for SpaceX will cause measurable price pressure on other large growth or technology stocks in the days after the IPO
This US survey examines (a) Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would lead to a substantial reduction in the numbers of skilled immigrants in the US; (b) Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would have a measurably adverse impact on a substantial number of US businesses
This US survey examines: The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, currently before Congress, includes proposed legislation on manufactured housing: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-the-21st-century-road-to-housing-act/; (a) Legislation to remove the federal requirement that manufactured homes be built on a permanent chassis would substantially improve the supply of affordable single-family housing
The European Commission recently presented the European Technological Sovereignty Package, a set of measures intended to strengthen Europe’s capacity in semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), cloud and open source: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_1187; (a) EU countries’ current reliance on non-European digital infrastructure – including cloud computing, AI, microchips, software and data centres – carries substantial economic risks in the medium term; (b) By securing critical supply chains (such as advanced semiconductors), scaling local cloud data centres and funding open source alternatives, the EU’s technological sovereignty package will substantially reduce economic risks in the medium term; (c) By securing critical supply chains (such as advanced semiconductors), scaling local cloud data centres and funding open source alternatives, the EU’s technological sovereignty package will substantially increase the long-term productivity and innovation capacity of European tech firms
This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in advanced countries; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries; (c) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education
This European survey examines (a) Over the past 25 years, the income of the median European citizen has declined substantially relative to the income of the median American citizen; (b) The living standards of the median European are not substantially lower than those of the median American
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Cuba’s low per-capita income growth — 1.2 percent per year since 1960 —has more to do with Cuba’s own economic policies than with the U.S. embargo on trade and tourism.
This US survey examines: (a) Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years; (b) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years; (c) Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) If the US replaced its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard, defining a “dollar” as a specific number of ounces of gold, the price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average American.
B) There are many factors besides US inflation risk that influence the current dollar price of gold.
Shifting the burden of municipal property taxes towards land and away from improvements such as buildings – as proposed in the Detroit land value tax plan – will enhance the incentives for owners to develop their land and thereby give a substantial boost to local economic growth over a ten-year horizon.
This Finance survey examines (a) Prediction markets provide substantially more accurate forecasts of key macro-financial variables than traditional sources such as surveys of professional forecasters; (b) Retail market participants would be measurably better off if sports contracts on prediction markets were regulated more like gambling than like financial derivatives
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel poll statements:
A) Freer trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choices, and in the long run these gains are much larger than any effects on employment.
B) On average, citizens of the U.S. have been better off with the North American Free Trade Agreement than they would have been if the trade rules for the U.S., Canada and Mexico prior to NAFTA had remained in place.
This US survey examines: The New York governor has proposed a pied-à-terre tax to support the New York City mayor’s efforts to close the city’s budget gap: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-pied-terre-tax-proposal-luxury-second-homes-valued-5-million-or-more
Details are starting to emerge: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/nyregion/second-home-tax.html
In the meantime, consider a tax that starts at 0.5% of assessed value over $5 million and rises to 4% of assessed value over $25 million, as in this 2019 proposal: https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2019/S44/amendment/original (a) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would raise annual revenues of at least $500 million for the city over the next five years; (b) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would lead to a substantial exodus of businesses and high-net-worth individuals from the city over the next five years; (c) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would make housing substantially more affordable for ordinary New Yorkers over the next five years
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:
A) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would lead to higher GDP within five years than without the tax cut.
B) A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would be higher within five years than without the tax cut.
This US survey examines: There is draft legislation in Congress to increase the supply of human kidneys by encouraging donations to strangers: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/2687 ; It is summarized here: https://www.hawaiibusiness.com/bipartisan-bill-aims-to-prevent-kidney-deaths-by-compensating-donors/; (a) Existing matching markets for kidney exchange have extended the lives of thousands of Americans with kidney disease; (b) A one-time $50,000 tax credit for kidney donation to strangers (with the transplants allocated at zero cost to recipients on the basis of waiting times) would save thousands of lives and pay for itself through a reduction in the cost of providing medical care to people suffering from renal failure; (c) Allowing hospitals to pay people for kidney donation to strangers would be at least as effective at saving lives and more cost effective than a tax credit
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:
Imposing new US tariffs on steel and aluminum will improve Americans’ welfare.
This US survey examines (a) Restrictions on large institutional investors buying single-family homes would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership; (b) Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership
