Question A:
Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would lead to a substantial reduction in the numbers of skilled immigrants in the US.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would have a measurably adverse impact on a substantial number of US businesses.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
How many of these immigrants are skilled and will ultimately prevented from getting green cards because of this policy? Not sure. So whether the effect is "substantial" is uncertain to me. It does look like a bad policy..
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It would have a negative, but small effect.
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Certainly will reduce but unsure if it will be "substantial"
|
||||
 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The impact depends on just what it means to go "overseas". Americans do not know how costly this could be. There is no point to this rule. Just an attack on immigration.
|
||||
 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A bad idea.
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
hard to tell if they really will follow through on this, but a change in this direction if enforced would greatly complicate the process for people in many countries
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
About 500000 apply each year for a green card while present in the US, including many high-skilled. If they must abandon current employment and move elsewhere, a noticeable fraction could make that move permanent.
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Don't know enough.
|
||||
 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is a stupid proposal.
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I don't know if it will be substantial, but it will have a negative impact. It's a ridiculous idea.
|
||||
 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
