Question A:
The introduction of perpetual futures on assets that are otherwise difficult to trade, such as shares in privately held companies, will substantially improve price discovery for those assets.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The introduction of perpetual futures with much laxer leverage limits than for conventional futures will substantially increase the risks of financial instability.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
The benefits of allowing futures to trade 24 hours a day, seven days a week outweigh the additional risks associated with continuous trading.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Viral Acharya |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Perpetual features will better reflect the long-term risks of long-lived private financial assets.
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 John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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How do you do perpetual futures on companies that don't have well functioning markets? Perpetual futures might be useful as ways to put on long term short positions. Otherwise, I think regular trading does a good job of price discovery!
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 Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not hard to improve on private-market price discovery., Perpetual futures can aggregate and disseminate privately held information.
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 Andrea Eisfeldt |
UCLA Anderson | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I disagree with "substantially". There may be some benefit given both optimists and pessimists can trade perps. However, the problem is that there is no spot market and arbitrage is difficult. Perps will be a noisy sentiment signal for private assets not a substantial improvement
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 Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In other cases where there are no firm quotes on which to base the pricing, this does not always seem to hold. It will be interesting to watch.
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 Arvind Krishnamurthy |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Loretta Mester |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Since there isn't an underlying asset, arbitrage won't work to bring future price into alignment with spot price of asset. So price discovery will be limited.
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 Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Tyler Muir |
UCLA Anderson | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Dimitris Papanikolaou |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paola Sapienza |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Thesmar |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More opportunity to express both bullish and bearish views. But no tight no-arbitrage relationship to underlying when latter is not always traded. Also more room for speculation to overwhelm price discovery.
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 Nancy Wallace |
Berkeley Haas | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Haoxiang Zhu |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Viral Acharya |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lax leverage might create greater risk but I would not think these are significant enough for systemic financial stability.
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John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is unclear whether these instruments will be liquid enough to enable large institutional positions.
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John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Financial stability comes from limiting run-prone short term debt by institutions that provide credit. The attitude we can't have any risk anywhere is stagnation not financial stability
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Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eventually, total leveraged positions would create vulnerability to unwinds and severe price impacts, including firesafes.. Margin regulations were introduced into conventional financial markets for this reason.
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Andrea Eisfeldt |
UCLA Anderson | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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High leverage and automatic liquidations can trigger cascades. Oct 10, 2025 saw $19b of crypto positions wiped out (but losses stayed in crypto). Expanding to equities and bonds may increase chance of systemic event if very high leverage is allowed.
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Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Arvind Krishnamurthy |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Loretta Mester |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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High leverage with continuous trading can amplify risks.
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Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tyler Muir |
UCLA Anderson | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eventually, if perps are widely adopted, and they become a regulatory loophole that contributes to a widespread erosion of margin levels in markets.
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Dimitris Papanikolaou |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paola Sapienza |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Thesmar |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it would have to be a large asset class to pose a significant problem to financial stability.
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Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I expect these futures markets to remain modest in size
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Nancy Wallace |
Berkeley Haas | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Haoxiang Zhu |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Viral Acharya |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Continuous trading may deepen the market with foreign participants wishing to express a view in these markets.
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John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's not clear that overnight trading in itself poses any serious risk.
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John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Why not? Trade what you want. So long as banks don't do it and the government isn't going to bail out losers, have fun.
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Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's not a clear case. But if not, should markets open only four days a week? Three? A cost of adding hours is increased risk monitoring. Benefits are greater chance for price discovery and risk sharing.
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Andrea Eisfeldt |
UCLA Anderson | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For all the questions, the appropriate answers seem to be " remains to be seen."
"
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Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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News does not keep exchange hours. Bombing of Iran occurred at 1am Saturday morning. 24-hour mrkts are thinner overnight. Let investors decide to pay that cost or trade at another time. Impt that payment rails are also 24/7 to handle margin calls. Also, AMMs have advantages here
-see background information here |
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Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Arvind Krishnamurthy |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Loretta Mester |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think it would depend on the asset and whether the market infrastructure permits 24/7 settlement and movement of collateral. The mismatch between trading hours and these infrastructure elements that support risk management is a risk.
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Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's not obvious to me what the risks are of 24-7 trading?
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Tyler Muir |
UCLA Anderson | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Dimitris Papanikolaou |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paola Sapienza |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Thesmar |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nancy Wallace |
Berkeley Haas | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Haoxiang Zhu |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
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