About
- Donnalisa ’86 and Bill Barnum Endowed Term Chair in Management
- Fischer Black Prize (2025)
- Associate Editor, Journal of Finance (2021- Present)
- Associate Editor, Journal of Financial Economics (2021- Present)
Voting History
Question A: The large demand of passive investors for shares in SpaceX in the days after the IPO will cause substantial overvaluation of the stock.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: Clear force that will push the price up and it is large enough to matter. Not clear it will result in bad realized returns for SpaceX going forward, always massive uncertainty in return prediction for an individual stock.
|
|||
Question B: Rebalancing of investors' portfolios to make room for SpaceX will cause measurable price pressure on other large growth or technology stocks in the days after the IPO.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: Forced buying of spacex should push up Spacex. But its a relatively small rebalance out of each individual stock in the index. The flow in dollars nets to zero but denominators are different. In addition, would think Spacex doesn't have many super close portfolio substitutes
|
|||
Question A: Prediction markets provide substantially more accurate forecasts of key macro-financial variables than traditional sources such as surveys of professional forecasters.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: Not sure substantially more accurate. The advantage of prediction markets for some macro variables is real-time higher frequency data (particularly useful for measuring real-time responses to events). That provides useful information.
|
|||
Question B: Retail market participants would be measurably better off if sports contracts on prediction markets were regulated more like gambling than like financial derivatives.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: I agree that is what they are. I am uncertain on measurably better off. Sports gambling is already now legal in most states
|
|||
Question A: Nasdaq has been consulting on inclusion of the largest companies in its indexes: https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/docs/NDX_Consultation-February_2026.pdf
Changing the rules for index inclusion to allow fast-track entry by extremely large IPOs (including waiving the free float requirement) is consistent with the objectives of passive index-based investing.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: Technically agree: passive mainly about market cap weighting everything, so including a top 40 company is consistent with that. Not sure this is a good idea though (see b)
|
|||
Question B: Changing the rules for index inclusion to allow fast-track entry by extremely large IPOs (including waiving the free float requirement) will make index fund investors measurably better off.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: Predictable forced buying into thin float at IPO would have big price impact, likely making index fund investors worse off at benefit of insiders. I don't see huge cost to waiting a year and let price discovery happen first
|
|||
Question A:Some major private credit funds - including those offered by BlackRock, Cliffwater and Morgan Stanley - have maintained their redemption limits, not fully filling all investor requests.
The enforcement of restrictions on withdrawals from private credit funds predicts that the funds will substantially underperform indices of liquid high-yield corporate bonds over the next 18 months.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|||
Question B: Assets in the private credit funds that are restricting withdrawals are substantially overvalued relative to their true market value.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: Likely to some degree, unsure on how substantially
|
|||
