About
- John L. and Helen Kellogg Professor of Finance
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Research Consultant
- National Bureau of Economic Research, Research Associate
- Journal of Finance, Anundi Smith Breeden, First Prize (2014, 2015)
Voting History
Question A: The large demand of passive investors for shares in SpaceX in the days after the IPO will cause substantial overvaluation of the stock.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: Unclear, depends on liquidity of the underlying investment. Also, even if illiquid, unclear why ‘overvaluation’ would persist.
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Question B: Rebalancing of investors' portfolios to make room for SpaceX will cause measurable price pressure on other large growth or technology stocks in the days after the IPO.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
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Comment: Unclear, depends on underlying liquidity.
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Question A: Prediction markets provide substantially more accurate forecasts of key macro-financial variables than traditional sources such as surveys of professional forecasters.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: If the outcomes are fairly idiosyncratic and unrelated to aggregate conditions, then this is true assuming prediction markers are fairly liquid and free of manipulation. If the outcomes are related to macro conditions, then prices of these contracts may embed a risk adjustment
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Question B: Retail market participants would be measurably better off if sports contracts on prediction markets were regulated more like gambling than like financial derivatives.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Question A: Nasdaq has been consulting on inclusion of the largest companies in its indexes: https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/docs/NDX_Consultation-February_2026.pdf
Changing the rules for index inclusion to allow fast-track entry by extremely large IPOs (including waiving the free float requirement) is consistent with the objectives of passive index-based investing.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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| Did Not Answer | |||
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Question B: Changing the rules for index inclusion to allow fast-track entry by extremely large IPOs (including waiving the free float requirement) will make index fund investors measurably better off.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Did Not Answer | |||
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Question A:Some major private credit funds - including those offered by BlackRock, Cliffwater and Morgan Stanley - have maintained their redemption limits, not fully filling all investor requests.
The enforcement of restrictions on withdrawals from private credit funds predicts that the funds will substantially underperform indices of liquid high-yield corporate bonds over the next 18 months.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
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Comment: private credit assets are illiquid so how they are valued matters. Capping redemptions prevents a bank run, but we do not know if the underlying issue is a liquidity or solvency problem. I suspect the latter but we do not have the underlying data.
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Question B: Assets in the private credit funds that are restricting withdrawals are substantially overvalued relative to their true market value.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
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Comment: Assuming the definition of market value includes the illiquidity discount, then the statement is probably true: if funds could sell the assets close to their internal valuations then there would be no need to cap redemptions.
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Interest-bearing stablecoins, either via direct issuer payments or exchange-provided rewards, would measurably erode the deposit franchise of banks in developed-market economies.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Question A: Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would reduce mortgage rates by more than 25 basis points.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
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Comment: It depends on the slope of the demand curve for buying MBS. I do not know what is the size of the purchase needed to move spreads by 25bps.
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Question B: Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
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Comment: Unless housing supply increases, this will simply translate into higher house prices.
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Question C: Restrictions on large institutional investors buying single-family homes would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
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Comment: Institutional investors own fewer than 1 percent of family homes. Maybe there is some heterogeneity, but the overall effect should be small.
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