About
- Franco Modigliani Professor of Financial Economics
- Senior Research Consultant, CFM, Paris & New York (2012-Present)
- Member of the Scientific Board of ESRB (European Systemic Risk Board) (2014-2017)
- Smith Breeden Prize, Journal of Finance (2018)
Voting History
Question A:Some major private credit funds - including those offered by BlackRock, Cliffwater and Morgan Stanley - have maintained their redemption limits, not fully filling all investor requests.
The enforcement of restrictions on withdrawals from private credit funds predicts that the funds will substantially underperform indices of liquid high-yield corporate bonds over the next 18 months.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: For banks, large withdrawals/funding dry-ups tend to predict future performance. The same logic may apply here. The difference is: it's not systemic.
|
|||
Question B: Assets in the private credit funds that are restricting withdrawals are substantially overvalued relative to their true market value.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: again, it's likely though highly uncertain. These vehicle are quite opaque, though much better capitalized than banks
|
|||
Interest-bearing stablecoins, either via direct issuer payments or exchange-provided rewards, would measurably erode the deposit franchise of banks in developed-market economies.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: currently, there are a lot of firm that offer easy-to-use cash accounts that can be quickly move into and out of deposit accounts. yet, aggregate deposits remain very big and do not respond a lot to interest rates, further, it may be hard to draw many people into stablecoins.
|
|||
Question A: Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would reduce mortgage rates by more than 25 basis points.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: seems about right since it's about 2% of the amount outstanding, and conventional demand elasticities.
|
|||
Question B: Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: ambiguous: it lowers the cost of borrowing, but will boost house prices
|
|||
Question C: Restrictions on large institutional investors buying single-family homes would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership.
| Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Comment: yes, but it would increase rents.
|
|||
