Building macroeconomic models on the forward-looking decisions of individual households and firms, rather than on estimated relationships among aggregates alone, has substantially improved the ability of policymakers to stabilize the economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The "Hall approach" is more effective. I am just not knowledgeable enough to be aware of how much advantage the government has actually taken from this.
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I take issue with the word "substantially". The Great Recession happened at a time when the New Keynesian framework was accepted by mainstream macro. I think that it was caused by bad policies related to factors that should be included in any macro theory.
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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two richly deserving laurates
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hall showed consumers look ahead, so temporary checks are mostly saved. Woodford showed monetary policy works through the expected rate path, so credibility is the instrument: forward guidance at the lower bound, anchored expectations after the 2021-2022 inflation.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here -see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The economy is an immensely complicated self-referential system, and stabilization remains difficult and elusive. The new macro models have improved our understanding and abilities, but remains to be done.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not my area. I have learned a lot from both Bob and Mike. Less clear what central bankers have learned.
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It may be debatable whether it has lead to a clearly better mechanical recipe for policy actions or stabilization (but "inflation targeting" may be one), it has certainly lead to clearer ways of thinking about complex policy questions, in fact, exposing that complexity.
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