US

Microfoundations and Stabilization Policy

Building macroeconomic models on the forward-looking decisions of individual households and firms, rather than on estimated relationships among aggregates alone, has substantially improved the ability of policymakers to stabilize the economy.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Aguiar
Mark Aguiar
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bergemann
Dirk Bergemann
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
The "Hall approach" is more effective. I am just not knowledgeable enough to be aware of how much advantage the government has actually taken from this.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Glaeser
Edward Glaeser
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hurst
Erik Hurst
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
I take issue with the word "substantially". The Great Recession happened at a time when the New Keynesian framework was accepted by mainstream macro. I think that it was caused by bad policies related to factors that should be included in any macro theory.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
two richly deserving laurates
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hall showed consumers look ahead, so temporary checks are mostly saved. Woodford showed monetary policy works through the expected rate path, so credibility is the instrument: forward guidance at the lower bound, anchored expectations after the 2021-2022 inflation.
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Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pathak
Parag Pathak
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The economy is an immensely complicated self-referential system, and stabilization remains difficult and elusive. The new macro models have improved our understanding and abilities, but remains to be done.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Scott Morton
Fiona Scott Morton
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Stantcheva
Stefanie Stantcheva
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Syverson
Chad Syverson
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Not my area. I have learned a lot from both Bob and Mike. Less clear what central bankers have learned.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Werning
Ivan Werning
MIT
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
It may be debatable whether it has lead to a clearly better mechanical recipe for policy actions or stabilization (but "inflation targeting" may be one), it has certainly lead to clearer ways of thinking about complex policy questions, in fact, exposing that complexity.