Question A:
Defense procurement that invites potential suppliers to propose technologies with potential military benefits rather than requiring them to meet tightly specified government requirements would generate substantially stronger military capabilities.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Defense procurement that enables start-up firms and other new entrants to participate (either as sole contractors or jointly with others, including incumbents) would generate substantially more innovation in military capabilities than directing spending predominantly towards incumbent contractors.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A mix of the two is best. Sometimes clients know what they need and sometimes vendors have good ideas. With innovation casting a broad net is especially wise.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This idea makes sense. However, it is hard to combine it with a standard bidding process. Why will a company suggest an innovative product if the buyer can turn round and ask someone else to develop it? So it may be necessary to combine this with a partnership-type approach.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Private suppliers and the military need to work together since military requirements often exceed civilian standards. The key problem is the slow response of government to new ideas proposed by private suppliers.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is miles away from my expertise, but based familiarity with other government contracting rules, this seems plausible.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure about "substantially".
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Proposing technologies is not enough; the contract with the government would have to ensure those capabilities were used in weapons systems
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems like free disposal implies offering this option cannot make things worse, at least.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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