Question A:
Defense procurement that invites potential suppliers to propose technologies with potential military benefits rather than requiring them to meet tightly specified government requirements would generate substantially stronger military capabilities.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Defense procurement that enables start-up firms and other new entrants to participate (either as sole contractors or jointly with others, including incumbents) would generate substantially more innovation in military capabilities than directing spending predominantly towards incumbent contractors.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The way that Ukraine has successfully innovated is a very interesting example for other countries. It seems there is continuous back and forth between the companies and the front line operatives using the technologies. It's not quite as the question poses the issue.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is ok to do it for some procurement but not for all of it.
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The specifications may aim at interoperability, which is a major issue for defense procurement.
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 Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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-There may be good reasons for tight specifications because any single weapon element needs to fit into a broader defense system. So consistency and fit and also uniform standards are absolutely key.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a typical cost benefit analysis: encouraging innovation in new military technology needs to be balanced against the risk that they could have unwanted negative effects, hurt civilians, etc. It will depend on how well government procurement can assess these risks upfront.
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Red tape and cumbersome procurement rules makes it hard for small innovative companies to compete
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Likely but there are also clear downsides of comparing widely different proposals.
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think there is room for innovation by start-ups and this is very important. But there is also room for innovation by incumbents. It's true that drones have emerged as a potent and essential weapon. However, Patriot missiles developed by incumbents are also essential.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unsure what prevents smaller firms to compete. As a matter of facts, there are huge economies of scale in this area. Need to combine innovation (smaller firms) with scale (consolidation).
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Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The process of identifying alternative weapon systems, like proof of concept etc., could and should be separated strictly from the mass-product procurement process itself. So again, here, a high degree of standardization in the procurement process makes sense
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In principle, procurement is open to start-ups or new entrants, but there are many practical challenges to (successful) participation in def procurement. Thus, in practice, participation can be quite limited. Broader participation, more ideas, more innovation.
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Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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it depends on how well managed the procurement process is, and firm capabilities need to be carefully assessed upfront. More competition in the supply chain is good if these suppliers are competent/correctly incentivized. There is a long literature in org econ on the pitfalls!
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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