European Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Frozen Assets

Europe

Frozen Assets

Question A:

Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz has recently called for the Russian central bank’s assets that are frozen in Europe to be made available for the defense of Ukraine: https://www.ft.com/content/3aacc930-9f5e-4558-90f1-62bf47a31cd5

Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially accelerate the ending of the war.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially reduce investment in assets issued by European economies.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially increase the likelihood of another country seizing Western sovereign assets in a future conflict.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

October 8, 2025

Inflation and Central Bank Independence

Europe

Inflation and Central Bank Independence

Question A:

If the European Central Bank changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

There is a substantial benefit to having higher average inflation and by implication a higher nominal interest rate so as to avoid hitting the zero lower bound.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

The fact that the Eurozone encompasses 20 countries – and thus the European Central Bank has 20 masters rather than one like the US Federal Reserve – eliminates the risk of fiscal dominance.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

September 25, 2025

Energy and Emissions in Developing Countries

Europe

Energy and Emissions in Developing Countries

This European survey examines The OECD’s projected cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from today until the year 2100 is 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2e, compared to 2,734 billion metric tons for the rest of the world - 82% of the total. (Larsen et al, Rhodium Group, 2024: https://climateoutlook.rhg.com/reports/rhodium-climate-outlook-2024-probabilistic-global-emissions-and-energy-projections): (a) The domestic net benefits of emissions reductions vary substantially across countries because of differences in income levels and exposure to climate risk; (b) In the absence of incentives from developed countries, developing countries will not reduce their emissions substantially in places where the private costs of fossil fuels remain meaningfully lower than those of zero-carbon fuels; (c) Providing incentives for developing countries to reduce their emissions through penalties (such as a carbon border adjustment mechanism or carbon club) is substantially less effective than providing equivalent incentives through subsidies (such as payments for climate damages in exchange for emissions reductions)

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

September 11, 2025

Digital Harm

Europe

Digital Harm

This European survey examines (a) The risks of harm from use of social media services - such as harm to mental health, exploitation of children, and more - are sufficient to justify regulations setting safety standards and creating a process of compensation for harm by digital platforms; b) To date, EU efforts to address harm from use of social media services - primarily the Digital Services Act - have been largely ineffective at protecting consumers

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

July 24, 2025

Sanctions

Europe

Sanctions

This European survey examines (a) The experience of the past 10 years suggests that Western-led economic sanctions do not substantially deter the target countries from their course of action; (b) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, Russia's current military and economic position would be substantially worse; (c) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, the world economy would have faced substantially higher oil prices

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

June 25, 2025

European Capital Markets

Europe

European Capital Markets

This European survey examines (a) Creating a ‘28th regime’ - an optional, EU-wide code of corporate, securities and insolvency law that firms could adopt and which would pre-empt the application of any of the 27 national rulebooks - would be substantially more effective in building a European capital market than continuing efforts to achieve harmonisation of the national rulebooks; (b) Creating the 28th regime would substantially increase the supply of capital to new ventures and growing businesses; (c) A well-functioning and efficient single EU capital market requires a strengthened European Securities and Markets Authority, comparable to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, to operate as a single market regulator

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

June 5, 2025

Electricity

Europe

Electricity

This European survey examines (a) The high cost of electricity for industrial users in the European Union relative to other big economies is a substantial constraint on growth; (b) Problems with the intermittency of renewable energy sources mean that over the next five years, electricity prices are more likely to rise than fall; (c) Substantial European investment in electricity infrastructure is essential to address high prices and unreliable supply

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

May 15, 2025

Scientists and Innovation

Europe

Scientists and Innovation

This European survey examines: New funding and immigration schemes to attract top scientific talent from abroad to EU universities would have a measurable impact on European innovation over a five year horizon

Migration

April 23, 2025

Foreign Aid

Europe

Foreign Aid

This European survey examines (a) The reductions in Western programs of development assistance will have no measurable effects on GDP growth in the recipient countries over the next five years; (b) The reductions in Western programs of development assistance will have substantially negative effects on the most vulnerable people in the recipient countries over the next five years; (c) Development assistance motivated by the potential benefits for the donors in terms of prosperity and security is measurably more effective in promoting GDP growth in recipient countries than aid based on humanitarian or other moral principles

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

April 9, 2025

Tariffs, Reciprocal and Retaliatory

Europe

Tariffs, Reciprocal and Retaliatory

This European survey examines (a) Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit; (b) The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war; (c) In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

March 11, 2025