Question A:
This summer's extreme weather in Europe will lead to substantial upward revisions to assessments of the near-term economic costs of the physical risks from climate change.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Because current emissions reductions will have little effect on the climate experienced during today’s voters’ lifetimes, this summer’s extreme weather events in Europe are unlikely to persuade people to vote for more ambitious near-term climate policy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Upward revisions of insurance premiums for physical risks associated with climate change following this summer's extreme weather events in Europe would indicate that insurance and reinsurance markets have historically underpriced those risks.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This summer was exceptional in Europe, even in comparison to recent summers. Once people in Europe realise how dangerous the heat is, particularly for old people, air conditioning will be used much more. There will be many other changes necessary to mitigate the heat.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is not a surprise, see e.g.
-see background information here |
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 Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It should lead to an upward revision, but it could be forgotten quickly.
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Well, the existing range was wide, but this year’s experience likely to draw greater attention of general public to the pessimistic end of the range.
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is growing consensus that high temperatures and near-droughts are the new normal in Europe, and that transport (water ways), agriculture, and the availability of AC has to be restructured in a big way.
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not much evidence on this yet, so my answer is more a guess. People will update in this direction, but not so much because some Bayesian updating could be warranted but more so behaviorally as events made climate change more salient (despite attribution being tricky).
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 Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It’s already happening!
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the US, climate change is denied the government. Unfortunately, even in Europe the politics is moving against climate change policies. It is important to change policies to encourage innovation more. China has shown that renewables can become profitable due to innovation.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Adaptation: quick, private, gains. Mitigation: slow, social, gains. Politics: adaptation over mitigation.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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People will surely ask for more adaptation policies. They will also ask for mitigation policies… provided it does not cost them anything.
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Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In fact, the near-term impact of climate-related policy measures on voting outcome for parties that negate climate risks is likely to suppress any new climate-related policy measures.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree with statement that effects of current emissions reductions are long-term, but it is not clear to me how widely this is understood. Thus, it is still possible that the events will increase the support for more ambitious policies, even though effects will not be short term
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Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There seems to have been little increase in support for Green parties
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The emissions in question being global, free-rider issues might also matter
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A decade of pretty absurd influence on policy has devalued the appeal of ecologists in many country. Politicians are still shy on carbon taxes and Trump stands to harm the EU border adjustments.
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Large upward revisions have occurred in the US in response to climate change. It is likely the same will happen more in Europe after this summer.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuelle Auriol |
Toulouse School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The insurance sector is well aware of the size of the problem. What is missing is a scheme that incentivizes adaptation measures to make insurance affordable, and at the same time allows for better risk mutualisation across insurers. Cat bonds, public-private partnerships…
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Julia Cagé |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antonio Fatás |
INSEAD | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I rather think that the underlying moments of the climate risk distribution has shifted recently towards higher expected damage levels. The premium adjustment we are now expecting may well influence climate risk mitigation, partly substituting for the suppressed policy actions.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is possible that (re)insurance markets underpriced physical risks, but I disagree that upward revisions of insurance premiums would necessarily imply that. Risk premia consist of mkt compensation per unit of risk & quantity of risk (or exposure). Comp can change w/o exposure
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Kalina Manova |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elias Papaioannou |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is happening in UK - e.g. premiums for subsidence risk (or withdrawal of coverage)
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Per Strömberg |
Stockholm School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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