Question A:
Mayor Mamdani has announced that a core basket of everyday groceries will be 30% cheaper at five new municipal grocery stores: https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/07/mayor-mamdani-unveils-30--discount---including-all-produce--all-
The profits on groceries that the city-owned grocery stores would forgo are sufficiently small that the vast majority of the 30% discount would be provided by tax-funded subsidies.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
A food assistance program along the lines of SNAP, with a potentially higher income cutoff, would provide direct support to low- and moderate-income city residents more effectively and with lower administrative costs than the proposed city-owned grocery stores.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I haven't looked at the numbers.
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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My understanding is that net profit margins at chains like Aldi and Safeway are not close to 30%. There's also the usual argument that for-profit firms are on average more efficient than government service providers.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I understand the plan is for subsidies. Not clear they wind up being small.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The plan does not identify cost savings. Grocery store margins are typically small. Subsidies will be necessary.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If city owned stores are run like a zero profit grocery store, the subsidy is 30%. If the city owned stores lose money on top of that -- as is much more likely -- the taxpayer funded subsidy is great than 30%.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I hope Kalshi or Polymarket opens a contract on this so that economists can get rich off of the obvious point that this is going to be really costly for the taxpayers -- unless it gets shutdown fast.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Margins in grocery store are notoriously small
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Net margins are currently 1-3%. More importantly, city-run grocery stores are likely to have higher costs due to higher wages, higher wholesale prices, and more spoilage. This will also have to be tax financed.
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I don't know the magnitudes to be able to judge "vast majority", but I wouldn't be surprised by this outcome.
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Reported margins are much smaller than 30% and profits must recover investment and other fixed costs
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This seems like a novel and relatively innocuous idea that is worth a try. It would be nice however if there were a built in way to measure its efficacy.
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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While I likely agree on net, I think a SNAP-like policy possibly should be accompanied by zoning relaxations or other location policies to fulfill one of the municipal supermarket goals-- lowering travel costs to full-line supermarkets.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm not familiar with the effectiveness of SNAP.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One important qualification: people will feel more dignity buying groceries at low prices with their own money.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Generally I agree. BUT There are also significant burdens in SNAP! gaining and maintaining eligibility. Also right now SNAP is being dramatically cut back. So this is a hard time to argue for SNAP as the solution.
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Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If you want to help the poor then it is best to target subsidies instead of opening up grocery stores where anyone can benefit from the subsidy.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The best thing you could do for low and moderate income residents would be to deregulate -- reduce city regulations on housing, businesses, employment, unions, etc.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Parag Pathak |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Government capacity is limited. Focus it on priorities that are best supplied by government. Grocery supply doesn't make the cut.
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Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The reach would be wider, so the total cost may be higher, but many reaons why it is more efficient per dollar spent.
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