The markets for consumer and business payment services would be substantially more efficient if payments by stablecoins (privately issued digital tokens pegged to a fiat currency) became an accepted alternative to traditional payments.
Whilst economic policy uncertainty, as previously discussed by On Global Markets, has notable macroeconomic downsides, it can, at least, provide useful event studies for empirically minded economists. This week saw just such an episode. On Wednesday morning, reports emerged that, at a meeting with Congressional representatives at the White House the day before, President Trump […]
By any reasonable definition, New Zealand is a small economy. The latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund suggest that the Pacific Nation’s GDP, weighted by purchasing power parity, represents just 0.2% of total global output. But the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has been something of a trailblazer when it comes to monetary […]
This US survey examines (a) If the Fed changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged; (b) The Fed’s revised strategy announced in 2020 - focusing on employment shortfalls and with a more flexible interpretation of the inflation target - has made little practical difference to monetary policy outcomes in the past five years
This installment of the FTxBooth US Macroeconomists Survey discusses economists’ concern over President Trump’s economic policies, specifically vis-à-vis dollar dominance and the Federal Reserve. The summary results are below and you can read the Financial Times article here, subscription required. View the results of this survey>> For social media: Please use the hashtag #FTxBooth when […]
In March 2022, in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of a Western-led sanctions package, some analysts became a little overexcited. Some went as far as to speculate whether Russia faced a ‘1998 style moment’ – referring to the country’s late 1990s default and economic crisis – or even a […]
This Finance survey examines: The nature of the Trump administration's 'golden share' agreement with Nippon Steel over the acquisition of US Steel has been summarized on X by the US secretary of commerce: https://x.com/howardlutnick/status/1933924525265043774 (a) The approval of Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel will be substantially positive for jobs and investment in the US steel industry; (b) Government power over an acquired company's operational and governance matters, as in the US government's golden share in US Steel, is a substantial constraint on effective management of the company; (c) The precedent of the golden share arrangement in the US Steel deal will be a substantial deterrent to foreign investors in American companies
This US survey examines (a) The experience of the past 10 years suggests that Western-led economic sanctions do not substantially deter the target countries from their course of action; (b) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, Russia's current military and economic position would be substantially worse; (c) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, the world economy would have faced substantially higher oil prices
This European survey examines (a) The experience of the past 10 years suggests that Western-led economic sanctions do not substantially deter the target countries from their course of action; (b) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, Russia's current military and economic position would be substantially worse; (c) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, the world economy would have faced substantially higher oil prices
