The last On Global Markets column looked at Chairman Powell’s remarks to the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers and considered how the Federal Reserve was navigating the tough combination of a seemingly slowing economy coupled with tariff-driven price pressures. It closed by casting forwards and noting that a Fed Board reshaped by the current […]
Chairman Powell’s much anticipated remarks took financial markets by surprise last week. Judging by the rapid price movements after his comments hit the tape, traders had been expecting less decisive steer on the direction of interest rates. The yield on the policy-sensitive two-year US government bond fell by almost ten basis points while a widely-watched […]
A couple of months ago, your columnist noted that the US economy was living in the pause; the 90-day period during which the Liberation Day tariffs had been suspended, but during which it was unclear exactly what would come afterwards. It seemed unlikely that the Federal Reserve would move policy until greater clarity on trade […]
The latest non-farm payrolls data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was clearly not received well in the White House. Unusually large back revisions to the figures for June and May suggest that the jobs market has slowed more sharply than originally believed over the last three months. President Trump’s response was to immediately […]
This US survey examines: There is no evidence to suggest that the employment estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are biased so as to favor any particular political party
Warfare, especially the sort of prolonged fighting against a near-peer adversary that has characterised the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, is a very costly business. Those costs are measured in both human suffering and financial terms. More than three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its own casualties have likely topped one million, whilst Ukraine […]
This US survey examines: Western countries have used interest earned on frozen Russian state assets to finance around $50 billion in loans to the government of Ukraine. There have also been calls to seize the assets in full, currently estimated at around $300 billion; (a) Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially accelerate the ending of the war, (b) Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would, by reducing the burden on Western taxpayers, substantially increase Western voters’ political approval for supporting Ukraine; (c) Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially reduce investment in assets denominated in Western currencies and/or increase the likelihood of another country seizing Western sovereign assets in a future conflict
Bipartisanship has been in short supply in Congress so far this year, but a notable exception, it seems, has been made for stablecoins. The GENIUS Act, or to give it its full name, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, passed the House by 308 to 122 votes. The new law sets […]
This European survey examines (a) The risks of harm from use of social media services - such as harm to mental health, exploitation of children, and more - are sufficient to justify regulations setting safety standards and creating a process of compensation for harm by digital platforms; b) To date, EU efforts to address harm from use of social media services - primarily the Digital Services Act - have been largely ineffective at protecting consumers
