Question A:
Western countries have used interest earned on frozen Russian state assets to finance around $50 billion in loans to the government of Ukraine. There have also been calls to seize the assets in full, currently estimated at around $300 billion.
Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially accelerate the ending of the war.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would, by reducing the burden on Western taxpayers, substantially increase Western voters’ political approval for supporting Ukraine.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially reduce investment in assets denominated in Western currencies and/or increase the likelihood of another country seizing Western sovereign assets in a future conflict.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is very difficult to foresee at this point whether relative Russian weakness would expedite or delay an end to the war.
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 Mark Aguiar |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Dirk Bergemann |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Edward Glaeser |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It will cause some pain but hardly dent the Rusdian resolve
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Erik Hurst |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is difficult to be confident about any such conjecture.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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obviously if it is all put into reconstruction that won't accelerate the end. So it depends how much is taken and how it is split
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seizing the assets would probably help the war effort, but hard to say whether the effect would be "substantial"
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Using the interest as long as the war lasts is effectively not that different from seizure. Seizure may motivate western governments to reduce their contributions.
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 Parag Pathak |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are obstacles to support for the Ukraine, such as refusing some weapons for fear of escalation, reluctance of nearby countries to lend support, political animus in the US, and so it is not clear that a new source of funds would be definitive.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Fiona Scott Morton |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Stefanie Stantcheva |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Chad Syverson |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very uncertain; the mechanism would be through lowering the politcal cost of supporting Ukraine.
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 Ivan Werning |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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