By Date

2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
Europe

Inflation and Central Bank Independence

Question A:

If the European Central Bank changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

There is a substantial benefit to having higher average inflation and by implication a higher nominal interest rate so as to avoid hitting the zero lower bound.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

The fact that the Eurozone encompasses 20 countries – and thus the European Central Bank has 20 masters rather than one like the US Federal Reserve – eliminates the risk of fiscal dominance.

Responses

Source: European Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
Read More
Democracy, Government, & Public Policy
US

Export Restrictions

Question A:

US export controls on advanced semiconductor technology and equipment will contribute substantially to maintaining US technological dominance in the industry over the next ten years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

US export controls on advanced semiconductor technology and equipment will substantially raise China's presence in the industry over the next ten years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

In ten years, historians will judge that the US’s current use of sanctions, export restrictions and tariffs in critical sectors substantially improved the median American citizen’s welfare.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
Read More
International Trade & Exchange Rates
Europe

Energy and Emissions in Developing Countries

This European survey examines The OECD’s projected cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from today until the year 2100 is 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2e, compared to 2,734 billion metric tons for the rest of the world - 82% of the total. (Larsen et al, Rhodium Group, 2024: https://climateoutlook.rhg.com/reports/rhodium-climate-outlook-2024-probabilistic-global-emissions-and-energy-projections): (a) The domestic net benefits of emissions reductions vary substantially across countries because of differences in income levels and exposure to climate risk; (b) In the absence of incentives from developed countries, developing countries will not reduce their emissions substantially in places where the private costs of fossil fuels remain meaningfully lower than those of zero-carbon fuels; (c) Providing incentives for developing countries to reduce their emissions through penalties (such as a carbon border adjustment mechanism or carbon club) is substantially less effective than providing equivalent incentives through subsidies (such as payments for climate damages in exchange for emissions reductions)

  
Read More
Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity
US

Energy and Emissions in Developing Countries

This US survey examines The OECD’s projected cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from today until the year 2100 is 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2e, compared to 2,734 billion metric tons for the rest of the world - 82% of the total. (Larsen et al, Rhodium Group, 2024: https://climateoutlook.rhg.com/reports/rhodium-climate-outlook-2024-probabilistic-global-emissions-and-energy-projections): (a) The domestic net benefits of emissions reductions vary substantially across countries because of differences in income levels and exposure to climate risk; (b) In the absence of incentives from developed countries, developing countries will not reduce their emissions substantially in places where the private costs of fossil fuels remain meaningfully lower than those of zero-carbon fuels; (c) Providing incentives for developing countries to reduce their emissions through penalties (such as a carbon border adjustment mechanism or carbon club) is substantially less effective than providing equivalent incentives through subsidies (such as payments for climate damages in exchange for emissions reductions)

  
Read More
Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity
Finance

Fed Independence

This Finance survey examines (a) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially increase the overall nominal cost of U.S. government borrowing; (b) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially raise risk premia on long-term U.S. government debt 
Read More
Bonds
On Global Markets

Slow Down?

For monetary policymakers, the current situation facing the US economy is, in the words of Jerome Powell, ‘challenging’. While there is clearly some inflationary pressure building, the jobs market is showing signs of weakening. That is a tricky divergence for the Federal Reserve to handle with the two sides of the dual mandate – price […] 
Read More
Articles