This US survey examines (a) A sustained decline in the dollar's market share in the global economy will mean that US consumers are substantially worse off than they otherwise would be; (b) A permanently weaker dollar would substantially raise the US government's cost of financing its deficits
Keyword: government budgets
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This Finance survey examines (a) The US dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency substantially raises its value; (b) US-led policy interventions that discouraged central banks from holding US treasury securities would substantially diminish the dollar's reserve currency status, (c) US-led policy interventions that led to a sustained weakening in the dollar would substantially damage the US government's ability to finance its deficits
This European survey examines (a) The likely need for increased European public investment in defense should come with substantial reallocations of public budgets at the national and EU levels; (b) Greater use of joint EU-level procurement of military equipment and defense research/innovation would promote substantially enhanced capacity in Europe's defense industry; (c) Increased defense spending would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth in Europe over the next five years
This European survey examines (a) A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances; (b) Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition
This European survey examines (a) Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework; (b) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules; (c) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules
This US survey examines (a) Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework; (b) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules; (c) Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules
With the US federal government having reached the current debt ceiling set by Congress and amid political tensions about raising the limit, we invited our panels of experts in economics and finance to express their views on the potential effects of default, as well as the ceiling’s impact on the long-run size of the debt. Over the weekend before the recent meeting between President Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, we asked the US economics panel whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statements, and, if so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence:
This week's European Economic Experts Panel statement:
People who migrated to Europe between 2015 and 2018 are likely — over the next two decades — to contribute more in taxes paid than they receive in benefits and public services.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate— and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
B) If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate— and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — the US debt-to-GDP ratio will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:
A) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States.
B) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government.
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