Clark Center Forum

The latest non-farm payrolls data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was clearly not received well in the White House. Unusually large back revisions to the figures for June and May suggest that the jobs market has slowed more sharply than originally believed over the last three months.  President Trump’s response was to immediately […] 

 

Warfare, especially the sort of prolonged fighting against a near-peer adversary that has characterised the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, is a very costly business. Those costs are measured in both human suffering and financial terms. More than three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its own casualties have likely topped one million, whilst Ukraine […] 

This US survey examines: Western countries have used interest earned on frozen Russian state assets to finance around $50 billion in loans to the government of Ukraine. There have also been calls to seize the assets in full, currently estimated at around $300 billion; (a) Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially accelerate the ending of the war, (b) Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would, by reducing the burden on Western taxpayers, substantially increase Western voters’ political approval for supporting Ukraine; (c) Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially reduce investment in assets denominated in Western currencies and/or increase the likelihood of another country seizing Western sovereign assets in a future conflict 

Bipartisanship has been in short supply in Congress so far this year, but a notable exception, it seems, has been made for stablecoins. The GENIUS Act, or to give it its full name, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, passed the House by 308 to 122 votes. The new law sets […] 

This European survey examines (a) The risks of harm from use of social media services - such as harm to mental health, exploitation of children, and more - are sufficient to justify regulations setting safety standards and creating a process of compensation for harm by digital platforms; b) To date, EU efforts to address harm from use of social media services - primarily the Digital Services Act - have been largely ineffective at protecting consumers 

This Finance survey examines (a) The markets for consumer and business payment services would be substantially more efficient if payments by stablecoins (privately issued digital tokens pegged to a fiat currency) became an accepted alternative to traditional payments; b) Ten years from now, stablecoins will account for a substantial share of payment flows and deposits in the global banking system 

Whilst economic policy uncertainty, as previously discussed by On Global Markets, has notable macroeconomic downsides, it can, at least, provide useful event studies for empirically minded economists. This week saw just such an episode. On Wednesday morning, reports emerged that, at a meeting with Congressional representatives at the White House the day before, President Trump […] 

By any reasonable definition, New Zealand is a small economy. The latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund suggest that the Pacific Nation’s GDP, weighted by purchasing power parity, represents just 0.2% of total global output. But the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has been something of a trailblazer when it comes to monetary […] 

This US survey examines (a) If the Fed changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged; (b) The Fed’s revised strategy announced in 2020 - focusing on employment shortfalls and with a more flexible interpretation of the inflation target - has made little practical difference to monetary policy outcomes in the past five years