Clark Center Forum

This installment of the FTxBooth US Macroeconomists Survey discusses economists’ thoughts regarding selection of the next Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The summary results are below and you can read the Financial Times article here, subscription required. View the results of this survey>> For social media: Please use the hashtag […] 

Geopolitical competition is increasingly shaping the global economy. And nowhere is this competition more intense than in the case of computer chips. As the Center for Responsible Statecraft noted in 2024, one can – arguably – date the present ‘chip war’ back to 2022. In October of 2022, President Biden launched America’s “chip war,” imposing […] 

This European survey examines (a) If the European Central Bank changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged; (b) There is a substantial benefit to having higher average inflation and by implication a higher nominal interest rate so as to avoid hitting the zero lower bound; (c) The fact that the Eurozone encompasses 20 countries – and thus the European Central Bank has 20 masters rather than one like the US Federal Reserve – eliminates the risk of fiscal dominance 

This US survey examines (a) US export controls on advanced semiconductor technology and equipment will contribute substantially to maintaining US technological dominance in the industry over the next ten years; (b) US export controls on advanced semiconductor technology and equipment will substantially raise China's presence in the industry over the next ten years; (c) In ten years, historians will judge that the US’s current use of sanctions, export restrictions and tariffs in critical sectors substantially improved the median American citizen’s welfare 

According to the Rodium Group’s Climate Outlook, between now and 2100, the OECD nations will collectively emit a cumulative 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2, out of a global total of 2,734 billion metric tons. In other words, developing and emerging economies will be responsible for 82% of carbon emissions over the rest of this […] 

This US survey examines (a) The Federal Reserve should be setting interest rates with the assumption that there will be no measurable effects of US tariffs on inflation by the summer of 2026; (b) If Federal Reserve Governor Cook is forced to leave her position, the inflation risk premia on US government debt will rise substantially 

The Federal Reserve’s independence is under threat. Or at least the level of independence the institution currently enjoys is coming under serious challenge. President Trump has been absolutely clear that he believes policy rates should be lower. In some regards, this is nothing new. Throughout his first term in office, the President continually took to […] 

This European survey examines The OECD’s projected cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from today until the year 2100 is 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2e, compared to 2,734 billion metric tons for the rest of the world - 82% of the total. (Larsen et al, Rhodium Group, 2024: https://climateoutlook.rhg.com/reports/rhodium-climate-outlook-2024-probabilistic-global-emissions-and-energy-projections): (a) The domestic net benefits of emissions reductions vary substantially across countries because of differences in income levels and exposure to climate risk; (b) In the absence of incentives from developed countries, developing countries will not reduce their emissions substantially in places where the private costs of fossil fuels remain meaningfully lower than those of zero-carbon fuels; (c) Providing incentives for developing countries to reduce their emissions through penalties (such as a carbon border adjustment mechanism or carbon club) is substantially less effective than providing equivalent incentives through subsidies (such as payments for climate damages in exchange for emissions reductions)

  

This US survey examines The OECD’s projected cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from today until the year 2100 is 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2e, compared to 2,734 billion metric tons for the rest of the world - 82% of the total. (Larsen et al, Rhodium Group, 2024: https://climateoutlook.rhg.com/reports/rhodium-climate-outlook-2024-probabilistic-global-emissions-and-energy-projections): (a) The domestic net benefits of emissions reductions vary substantially across countries because of differences in income levels and exposure to climate risk; (b) In the absence of incentives from developed countries, developing countries will not reduce their emissions substantially in places where the private costs of fossil fuels remain meaningfully lower than those of zero-carbon fuels; (c) Providing incentives for developing countries to reduce their emissions through penalties (such as a carbon border adjustment mechanism or carbon club) is substantially less effective than providing equivalent incentives through subsidies (such as payments for climate damages in exchange for emissions reductions)

  

This Finance survey examines (a) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially increase the overall nominal cost of U.S. government borrowing; (b) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially raise risk premia on long-term U.S. government debt