Clark Center Forum

According to the Rodium Group’s Climate Outlook, between now and 2100, the OECD nations will collectively emit a cumulative 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2, out of a global total of 2,734 billion metric tons. In other words, developing and emerging economies will be responsible for 82% of carbon emissions over the rest of this […] 

 

The Federal Reserve’s independence is under threat. Or at least the level of independence the institution currently enjoys is coming under serious challenge. President Trump has been absolutely clear that he believes policy rates should be lower. In some regards, this is nothing new. Throughout his first term in office, the President continually took to […] 

This European survey examines The OECD’s projected cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from today until the year 2100 is 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2e, compared to 2,734 billion metric tons for the rest of the world - 82% of the total. (Larsen et al, Rhodium Group, 2024: https://climateoutlook.rhg.com/reports/rhodium-climate-outlook-2024-probabilistic-global-emissions-and-energy-projections): (a) The domestic net benefits of emissions reductions vary substantially across countries because of differences in income levels and exposure to climate risk; (b) In the absence of incentives from developed countries, developing countries will not reduce their emissions substantially in places where the private costs of fossil fuels remain meaningfully lower than those of zero-carbon fuels; (c) Providing incentives for developing countries to reduce their emissions through penalties (such as a carbon border adjustment mechanism or carbon club) is substantially less effective than providing equivalent incentives through subsidies (such as payments for climate damages in exchange for emissions reductions)

  

This US survey examines The OECD’s projected cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from today until the year 2100 is 616.2 billion metric tons of CO2e, compared to 2,734 billion metric tons for the rest of the world - 82% of the total. (Larsen et al, Rhodium Group, 2024: https://climateoutlook.rhg.com/reports/rhodium-climate-outlook-2024-probabilistic-global-emissions-and-energy-projections): (a) The domestic net benefits of emissions reductions vary substantially across countries because of differences in income levels and exposure to climate risk; (b) In the absence of incentives from developed countries, developing countries will not reduce their emissions substantially in places where the private costs of fossil fuels remain meaningfully lower than those of zero-carbon fuels; (c) Providing incentives for developing countries to reduce their emissions through penalties (such as a carbon border adjustment mechanism or carbon club) is substantially less effective than providing equivalent incentives through subsidies (such as payments for climate damages in exchange for emissions reductions)

  

This Finance survey examines (a) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially increase the overall nominal cost of U.S. government borrowing; (b) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially raise risk premia on long-term U.S. government debt 

For monetary policymakers, the current situation facing the US economy is, in the words of Jerome Powell, ‘challenging’. While there is clearly some inflationary pressure building, the jobs market is showing signs of weakening. That is a tricky divergence for the Federal Reserve to handle with the two sides of the dual mandate – price […] 

The last On Global Markets column looked at Chairman Powell’s remarks to the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers and considered how the Federal Reserve was navigating the tough combination of a seemingly slowing economy coupled with tariff-driven price pressures. It closed by casting forwards and noting that a Fed Board reshaped by the current […] 

Chairman Powell’s much anticipated remarks took financial markets by surprise last week. Judging by the rapid price movements after his comments hit the tape, traders had been expecting less decisive steer on the direction of interest rates. The yield on the policy-sensitive two-year US government bond fell by almost ten basis points while a widely-watched […] 

A couple of months ago, your columnist noted that the US economy was living in the pause; the 90-day period during which the Liberation Day tariffs had been suspended, but during which it was unclear exactly what would come afterwards. It seemed unlikely that the Federal Reserve would move policy until greater clarity on trade […]