This European survey examines (a) If the European Central Bank changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged; (b) There is a substantial benefit to having higher average inflation and by implication a higher nominal interest rate so as to avoid hitting the zero lower bound; (c) The fact that the Eurozone encompasses 20 countries – and thus the European Central Bank has 20 masters rather than one like the US Federal Reserve – eliminates the risk of fiscal dominance
Keyword: government debt
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This US survey examines (a) The Federal Reserve should be setting interest rates with the assumption that there will be no measurable effects of US tariffs on inflation by the summer of 2026; (b) If Federal Reserve Governor Cook is forced to leave her position, the inflation risk premia on US government debt will rise substantially
This Finance survey examines (a) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially increase the overall nominal cost of U.S. government borrowing; (b) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially raise risk premia on long-term U.S. government debt
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