This US survey examines (a) The US intervention in Venezuela will have no measurable impact on the world oil price over the next 12 months; (b) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in the profitability of US energy companies over the next five years; (c) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in economic growth in Venezuela over the next five years
Keyword: geopolitics
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This European survey examines (a) The US intervention in Venezuela will have no measurable impact on the world oil price over the next 12 months; (b) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in the profitability of US energy companies over the next five years; (c) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in economic growth in Venezuela over the next five years
This US survey examines: There are reports that the US strategy in negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict is prioritizing economic interdependence: https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-u-s-peace-business-ties-4db9b290; (a) Creating expanded mutual business opportunities for American, Russian, and Ukrainian firms would lead to a substantially more stable peace agreement (b) Pursuing economic interdependence without complementary diplomacy (including credible guarantees of Ukraine’s future security) is unlikely to end the conflict and subsequently preserve peace
This European survey examines: Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz has recently called for the Russian central bank’s assets that are frozen in Europe to be made available for the defense of Ukraine: https://www.ft.com/content/3aacc930-9f5e-4558-90f1-62bf47a31cd5 (a) Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially accelerate the ending of the war; (b) Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially reduce investment in assets issued by European economies; (c) Making use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine’s defense would substantially increase the likelihood of another country seizing Western sovereign assets in a future conflict
This US survey examines: Western countries have used interest earned on frozen Russian state assets to finance around $50 billion in loans to the government of Ukraine. There have also been calls to seize the assets in full, currently estimated at around $300 billion; (a) Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially accelerate the ending of the war, (b) Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would, by reducing the burden on Western taxpayers, substantially increase Western voters’ political approval for supporting Ukraine; (c) Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially reduce investment in assets denominated in Western currencies and/or increase the likelihood of another country seizing Western sovereign assets in a future conflict
This US survey examines (a) The experience of the past 10 years suggests that Western-led economic sanctions do not substantially deter the target countries from their course of action; (b) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, Russia's current military and economic position would be substantially worse; (c) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, the world economy would have faced substantially higher oil prices
This European survey examines (a) The experience of the past 10 years suggests that Western-led economic sanctions do not substantially deter the target countries from their course of action; (b) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, Russia's current military and economic position would be substantially worse; (c) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, the world economy would have faced substantially higher oil prices
This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:
Past experience suggests that economic sanctions do little to deter the target countries from their course of action.
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