Clark Center Forum

 

The tariff roller coaster is going and taking even wilder turns. In the last week the United States imposed the previously delayed by one month promised 25% tariffs on trade with Mexico and Canada on March 4th. On March 5th, following intense lobbying by the big automakers, the automotive sector secured a further one-month delay. […] 

“This can’t possibly be a serious question” is how Andrew Lo of MIT Sloan responded to a poll posed to the Clark Center’s Finance Expert Panel last week. Matteo Maggiori of Stanford GSB went a little further, noting, “This would strike me as one of the worst policy ideas ever”. It is then fair to […] 

German voters go to the polls this week following the collapse of the, sometimes chaotic, three-way coalition which has run the Federal government since late 2021. There is plenty for the electorate to consider. The economy is stuck in its first two-year recession since the early 2000s. More broadly, economic performance has been miserable since […] 

This European survey examines (a) The wave of immigration to Germany after 2015 (and up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine) has been a net positive for the country's economy; (b) Immigration to EU countries has been a net positive for government finances, adding substantially more in tax revenues than the increased costs associated with integration of immigrants; (c) Given Europe's low and falling fertility rates (from seven million births per year in 1960 to four million today), maintaining its position as a world economic power will require increased immigration over the medium term

  

This Finance survey examines (a) Central banks' international reserves portfolios would have substantially lower risk if they were to hold a substantial portion of their reserves in crypto assets;
(b) The US economy would benefit substantially by borrowing money to form a strategic crypto asset reserve fund 

This US survey examines (a) The president has signed an executive order that pauses enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially increase global levels of bribery and corruption; (b) Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially improve US businesses' long-term profits and long-term competitiveness

  

Whilst he may have died almost a century and a half ago, 2025 has seen a sudden revival of interest in William Stanley Jevons.  Jevons, born way back in 1835, was one of the great economists of the nineteenth century. And while he may not have quite the enduring fame of some of his contemporaries, […] 

Covering a Trump administration can be tricky at times, especially for those writing a weekly piece. Your columnist began writing this week’s note on Friday. In the 72 or so hours that followed the President: said he would announce ‘reciprocal tariffs’ in the coming week, announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports would be […] 

This European survey examines: Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/

'In recent years, the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country's values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives... The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit formal written notification of the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.'

(a) US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will deliver a measurable boost to the country's economic growth over the next four years; (b) US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will have a measurably negative impact on international progress on mitigation of global warming