Clark Center Forum

Covering a Trump administration can be tricky at times, especially for those writing a weekly piece. Your columnist began writing this week’s note on Friday. In the 72 or so hours that followed the President: said he would announce ‘reciprocal tariffs’ in the coming week, announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports would be […] 

 

This US survey examines: The new administration has issued three executive orders related to energy and climate:

Declaring a National Energy Emergency: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declaring-a-national-energy-emergency/
'The United States’ insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to our Nation’s economy, national security, and foreign policy. In light of these findings, I hereby declare a national emergency.'

Insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitute a substantial threat to the US economy.

(b)Unleashing American Energy: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-american-energy/
'The calculation of the “social cost of carbon” is marked by logical deficiencies, a poor basis in empirical science, politicization, and the absence of a foundation in legislation… rendering the United States economy internationally uncompetitive… the Administrator of the EPA shall issue guidance to address these harmful and detrimental inadequacies, including consideration of eliminating the “social cost of carbon” calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision.'

Eliminating the ‘social cost of carbon’ calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision would substantially improve the international competitiveness of the US economy.

(c) Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/
'In recent years, the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country’s values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives… The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit formal written notification of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.'

Withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will deliver a measurable boost to US economic growth over the next four years. 

Europe’s economy is stuck in a rut. The latest figures, released this week, show Eurozone GDP flat in the fourth quarter and growth across the European Union as a whole up by just 0.1%. Nothing captures the gloom quite as well as Eurostat, the official statistics body, describing the Eurozone’s poor performance with the headline […] 

American cities have a long history when it comes to fire. As the historian Daniel Immerwahr noted in a fascinating and beautifully written (and also open access) journal paper last year, the great circus master P. T. Barnum listed five occasions in his memoirs when his circus, museum or home was destroyed by a blaze. […] 

This European survey examines (a) A baseline US tariff of 10% on all European imported goods would have substantially damaging economic consequences for many countries in Europe; (b) Rather than responding to threatened tariffs with retaliatory measures, unilaterally opening EU markets to US exports would deliver better outcomes for European industry; (c) Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years

  

This US survey examines (a) California's insurance industry regulator issued statements shortly before and shortly after the recent wildfires started (on December 30, 2024, and January 9, 2025): https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2024/release065-2024.cfm; https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2025/release005-2025.cfm In the face of growing wildfire risks, price caps on insurance premiums have substantially reduced the viability of private property insurance markets in California; (b) A mandatory one-year moratorium on insurance non-renewals and cancellations would lead to a substantial longer-term reduction in the supply of private home insurance products and the number of households that are insured against catastrophic risk in areas of California affected by recent wildfires

  

This Finance survey examines (a) California's insurance industry regulator issued statements shortly before and shortly after the recent wildfires started (on December 30, 2024, and January 9, 2025): https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2024/release065-2024.cfm; https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2025/release005-2025.cfm In the face of growing wildfire risks, price caps on insurance premiums have substantially reduced the viability of private property insurance markets in California; (b) A mandatory one-year moratorium on insurance non-renewals and cancellations would lead to a substantial longer-term reduction in the supply of private home insurance products and the number of households that are insured against catastrophic risk in areas of California affected by recent wildfires. 

It can be all too easy for both investors and those writing about finance and economics to get too caught up in the day-by-day and week-by-week moves of financial markets. The drama of sudden gyrations, rallies, and declines is sometimes irresistible and there is always a risk that too much significance will be attached to […] 

It is never a good sign for finance ministers when bond market moves make the front pages of the non-financial press. That is what has happened this week in Britain as the rising yield on gilts (as British sovereign bonds are rather quaintly sometimes dubbed) rose to multi-year highs. The yield on ten year British […]