Finance Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores finance professors’ views on vital policy issues via our Finance Panel.  We regularly poll over 40 individuals on a range of timely and relevant topics.  Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Finance

AI and Stock Prices

If an AI-driven services productivity boom materializes over the next five years, it will substantially reduce current stock market valuations for firms with a large percentage of white-collar employees.

 
Finance

Interest-Bearing Stablecoins

Interest-bearing stablecoins, either via direct issuer payments or exchange-provided rewards, would measurably erode the deposit franchise of banks in developed-market economies.

 
Finance

Housing Affordability

This Finance survey examines (a) Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would reduce mortgage rates by more than 25 basis points; (b) Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership; (c) Restrictions on large institutional investors buying single-family homes would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership 
Finance

Trump Accounts

The proposed Trump Accounts (https://trumpaccounts.gov/) will provide an initial savings deposit of $1,000 from the US Treasury to eligible children born between 2025 and 2028, and allow up to $5,000 a year in additional private contributions; (a) The proposed Trump Accounts will substantially improve long-term wealth accumulation; (b) The proposed Trump Accounts will substantially reduce income inequality among future generations (c) The proposed Trump Accounts will substantially increase support for free-market capitalism over socialism 
Finance

Corporate Practices and Shareholder Value

This Finance survey examines: The two major proxy advisory firms – Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services – have announced their intention to offer multiple perspectives to clients rather than single voting recommendations – see, for example: https://www.ft.com/content/7860f94c-7b1c-49c9-9f4c-a561ee39ee31; (a) Proxy advisory firms that provide general guidance on corporate governance, diversity and environmental practices will create measurably more shareholder value for investor clients than proxy advisory firms that provide specific voting recommendations (b) Companies that scale back on their diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives are likely to see a measurable improvement in their corporate value and performance 
Finance

Fed Independence

This Finance survey examines (a) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially increase the overall nominal cost of U.S. government borrowing; (b) A substantial loss of Federal Reserve independence would substantially raise risk premia on long-term U.S. government debt 
Finance

Stablecoin Adoption

This Finance survey examines (a) The markets for consumer and business payment services would be substantially more efficient if payments by stablecoins (privately issued digital tokens pegged to a fiat currency) became an accepted alternative to traditional payments; b) Ten years from now, stablecoins will account for a substantial share of payment flows and deposits in the global banking system 
Finance

US Steel Deal

This Finance survey examines: The nature of the Trump administration's 'golden share' agreement with Nippon Steel over the acquisition of US Steel has been summarized on X by the US secretary of commerce: https://x.com/howardlutnick/status/1933924525265043774 (a) The approval of Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel will be substantially positive for jobs and investment in the US steel industry; (b) Government power over an acquired company's operational and governance matters, as in the US government's golden share in US Steel, is a substantial constraint on effective management of the company; (c) The precedent of the golden share arrangement in the US Steel deal will be a substantial deterrent to foreign investors in American companies