Finance Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores finance professors’ views on vital policy issues via our Finance Panel.  We regularly poll over 40 individuals on a range of timely and relevant topics.  Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
Finance

Stablecoin Adoption

Question A:

The markets for consumer and business payment services would be substantially more efficient if payments by stablecoins (privately issued digital tokens pegged to a fiat currency) became an accepted alternative to traditional payments.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

Ten years from now, stablecoins will account for a substantial share of payment flows and deposits in the global banking system.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Banking
Finance

US Steel Deal

Question A:

The nature of the Trump administration's 'golden share' agreement with Nippon Steel over the acquisition of US Steel has been summarized on X by the US secretary of commerce: https://x.com/howardlutnick/status/1933924525265043774


The approval of Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel will be substantially positive for jobs and investment in the US steel industry.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

Government power over an acquired company's operational and governance matters, as in the US government's golden share in US Steel, is a substantial constraint on effective management of the company.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

The precedent of the golden share arrangement in the US Steel deal will be a substantial deterrent to foreign investors in American companies.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Business, Management, & Corporate Performance
Finance

Central Banking and Climate Change

This Finance survey examines (a) Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade; (b) The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade 
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Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources
Finance

Debt and the Dollar

This Finance survey examines (a) The US dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency substantially raises its value; (b) US-led policy interventions that discouraged central banks from holding US treasury securities would substantially diminish the dollar's reserve currency status, (c) US-led policy interventions that led to a sustained weakening in the dollar would substantially damage the US government's ability to finance its deficits 
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International Finance
Finance

Capping Credit Card Interest Rates

This Finance survey examines: A bipartisan bill to cap credit card interest rates at 10% has been introduced recently in the House and the Senate: https://ocasio-cortez.house.gov/media/press-releases/ocasio-cortez-luna-introduce-bill-cap-credit-card-interest-rates-10; (a) Capping credit card interest rates at 10% would make most users measurably better off; (b) Capping credit card interest rates at 10% would lead to a substantial reduction in access to credit for low-income borrowers 
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Financial Regulation
Finance

Wildfires

This Finance survey examines (a) California's insurance industry regulator issued statements shortly before and shortly after the recent wildfires started (on December 30, 2024, and January 9, 2025): https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2024/release065-2024.cfm; https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0100-press-releases/2025/release005-2025.cfm In the face of growing wildfire risks, price caps on insurance premiums have substantially reduced the viability of private property insurance markets in California; (b) A mandatory one-year moratorium on insurance non-renewals and cancellations would lead to a substantial longer-term reduction in the supply of private home insurance products and the number of households that are insured against catastrophic risk in areas of California affected by recent wildfires. 
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Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources
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