Ukraine Peace Plans

This Finance survey examines (a) The AI-led boom in investment and growth has substantially increased the exposure of the economy and the stock market to a single concentrated source of tail risk; (b) The use of financing from technology suppliers such as Nvidia to support investments in AI infrastructure substantially increases the financial risks associated with the AI-led boom

This European survey examines (a) Defense procurement that invites potential suppliers to propose technologies with potential military benefits rather than requiring them to meet tightly specified government requirements would generate substantially stronger military capabilities; (b) Defense procurement that enables start-up firms and other new entrants to participate (either as sole contractors or jointly with others, including incumbents) would generate substantially more innovation in military capabilities than directing spending predominantly towards incumbent contractors

This US survey examines (a) Government restrictions on insurance premiums are preventing insurance prices from fully reflecting the increasing physical risks associated with climate change; (b) By preventing climate-related risks from being fully reflected in insurance prices, government interventions are encouraging economic activity in areas that are increasingly exposed to extreme weather

This European survey examines (a) This summer's extreme weather in Europe will lead to substantial upward revisions to assessments of the near-term economic costs of the physical risks from climate change; (b) Because current emissions reductions will have little effect on the climate experienced during today’s voters’ lifetimes, this summer’s extreme weather events in Europe are unlikely to persuade people to vote for more ambitious near-term climate policy; (c) Upward revisions of insurance premiums for physical risks associated with climate change following this summer's extreme weather events in Europe would indicate that insurance and reinsurance markets have historically underpriced those risks

This US survey examines: Mayor Mamdani has announced that a core basket of everyday groceries will be 30% cheaper at five new municipal grocery stores: https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/07/mayor-mamdani-unveils-30--discount---including-all-produce--all-; a) The profits on groceries that the city-owned grocery stores would forgo are sufficiently small that the vast majority of the 30% discount would be provided by tax-funded subsidies; (b) A food assistance program along the lines of SNAP, with a potentially higher income cutoff, would provide direct support to low- and moderate-income city residents more effectively and with lower administrative costs than the proposed city-owned grocery stores

This US survey examines (a) A substantial increase in defense spending largely funded by government borrowing would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth over the next five years; (b) Increasing public investment in defense R&D would generate substantial technological spillovers and productivity gains in addition to the boost to national military capabilities; (c) The market power of defense suppliers substantially raises procurement costs without adding to military capabilities