US

Labor Statistics

There is no evidence to suggest that the employment estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are biased so as to favor any particular political party.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Aguiar
Mark Aguiar
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
I had the privilege of serving on the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee for many years. I was always impressed with the dedication of the BLS, Census, and BEA leadership and staff to producing the high quality data with limited resources.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Revisions are routine, and tend to be larger when economic conditions are changing rapidly. McEntarfer is a non-partisan economist and BLS' procedures are consistent, credible, and not subject to manipulation. No evidence supports the slander that BLS estimates were 'rigged.'
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bergemann
Dirk Bergemann
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
at least I am not aware of any evidence.
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
In recent years, the BLS has produced inflation and employment data inconvenient to both parties. If we wanted to pursue the laudable goal of improving timely accuracy at the BLS, the 1st steps would be reversing the DOGE cuts and restoring and even strengthening FESAC.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
This would have to be the largest conspiracy ever, without any information getting out.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
I have heard nothing credible to the contrary.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Glaeser
Edward Glaeser
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
BLS statistics are produced in a way that has been consistent for many years. The staff who conduct the surveys and compute the statistics are non-partisan. They are interested only in accurate data and statistics. The BLS produces many statistics so that we can choose among them
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hurst
Erik Hurst
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Besides the fact that you can't see patterns that suggest this in the revisions, if you know anything about how the numbers are constructed, it would take a vast conspiracy to pull something like that off. Let's hope the current process is preserved with more BLS staff funding.
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
BLS data collection and processing is done by dedicated professionals without regard to politics. Their credible, independent work is vital for guiding policy to promote general welfare.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pathak
Parag Pathak
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The BLS has a long history of expert and objective data analysis.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Trump emulates “electoral autocrats” like Erdogan and Orbán by seizing control of stats agencies. BEA may be next; autocrats typically inflate GDP (Martinez, 2022). Private efforts, like Cavallo’s in Kirchner’s Argentina, may offer alternatives, but lack federal precision.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Scott Morton
Fiona Scott Morton
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The Trump Admin. and its supporters have provided no such evidence.
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Large data revisions and low response rates are worrisome, but there is no evidence that they reflect political bias.
Stantcheva
Stefanie Stantcheva
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The U.S. has long had a well-deserved reputation for reliable economics statistics. Unlike China, the old USSR, and other countries where economic data were manipulated for political ends. Trump's firing of the BLS head can only damage the reputation of the U.S.
Syverson
Chad Syverson
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Statistical uncertainty that ends up resolving the way someone does not like is not political bias.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The BLS provides accurate, trustworthy, timely, relevant data that can be used to guide policy and inform decision-making by government officials and the public. Firing the bearer of bad news is not only pathetic and childish, but also immensly costly.
-see background information here
Werning
Ivan Werning
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
I know of no credible evidence documenting such bias. There are numerous technical and bureaucratic safeguards. Past allegations have been investigated and lacked support. The incentives to find and document such a bias, if it existed, are high within the economics profession.