US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Municipal Grocery Stores In New York City

Question A:

Mayor Mamdani has announced that a core basket of everyday groceries will be 30% cheaper at five new municipal grocery stores: https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2026/07/mayor-mamdani-unveils-30--discount---including-all-produce--all-

The profits on groceries that the city-owned grocery stores would forgo are sufficiently small that the vast majority of the 30% discount would be provided by tax-funded subsidies.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

A food assistance program along the lines of SNAP, with a potentially higher income cutoff, would provide direct support to low- and moderate-income city residents more effectively and with lower administrative costs than the proposed city-owned grocery stores.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

August 5, 2026

Defense Spending

Question A:

A substantial increase in defense spending largely funded by government borrowing would deliver a measurable boost to economic growth over the next five years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Increasing public investment in defense R&D would generate substantial technological spillovers and productivity gains in addition to the boost to national military capabilities.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

The market power of defense suppliers substantially raises procurement costs without adding to military capabilities.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

July 29, 2026

The UK and Europe

This US survey examines (a) Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has experienced substantially lower growth than it would have done had it remained in the European Union; (b) The UK would be substantially richer ten years from now if it immediately began negotiations and domestic preparations with the aim of fully rejoining the European Union

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

June 30, 2026

Factory-Made Housing

This US survey examines: The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, currently before Congress, includes proposed legislation on manufactured housing: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-the-21st-century-road-to-housing-act/; (a) Legislation to remove the federal requirement that manufactured homes be built on a permanent chassis would substantially improve the supply of affordable single-family housing

Investment, Infrastructure, & Cities

June 18, 2026

Permanent Residency Rules

This US survey examines (a) Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would lead to a substantial reduction in the numbers of skilled immigrants in the US; (b) Requiring most green card applicants to apply for permanent residency from overseas would have a measurably adverse impact on a substantial number of US businesses

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

June 3, 2026

Living-Donor Kidney Transplants

This US survey examines: There is draft legislation in Congress to increase the supply of human kidneys by encouraging donations to strangers: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/2687 ; It is summarized here: https://www.hawaiibusiness.com/bipartisan-bill-aims-to-prevent-kidney-deaths-by-compensating-donors/; (a) Existing matching markets for kidney exchange have extended the lives of thousands of Americans with kidney disease; (b) A one-time $50,000 tax credit for kidney donation to strangers (with the transplants allocated at zero cost to recipients on the basis of waiting times) would save thousands of lives and pay for itself through a reduction in the cost of providing medical care to people suffering from renal failure; (c) Allowing hospitals to pay people for kidney donation to strangers would be at least as effective at saving lives and more cost effective than a tax credit

Healthcare & Wellbeing

May 21, 2026

AI, Work, and Education

This US survey examines (a) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the unemployment rates in advanced countries; (b) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries; (c) Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education

Education & Skills

May 13, 2026

Pied-a-Terre Tax

This US survey examines: The New York governor has proposed a pied-à-terre tax to support the New York City mayor’s efforts to close the city’s budget gap: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-pied-terre-tax-proposal-luxury-second-homes-valued-5-million-or-more

Details are starting to emerge: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/nyregion/second-home-tax.html

In the meantime, consider a tax that starts at 0.5% of assessed value over $5 million and rises to 4% of assessed value over $25 million, as in this 2019 proposal: https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2019/S44/amendment/original (a) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would raise annual revenues of at least $500 million for the city over the next five years; (b) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would lead to a substantial exodus of businesses and high-net-worth individuals from the city over the next five years; (c) An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would make housing substantially more affordable for ordinary New Yorkers over the next five years

Investment, Infrastructure, & Cities

May 4, 2026

Science Funding

This US survey examines (a) Independent of any other cuts to public funding of scientific research, a 55% reduction in the budget for the National Science Foundation would have no measurable effect on the well-being of the typical American over the next 10 years; (b) Historical federal support for scientific research has paid for itself through a substantial positive effect on long-run US productivity growth

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

April 15, 2026

The Jones Act

This US survey examines (a) The 60-day waiver of the Jones Act (which requires that cargo moved between domestic ports is carried on US vessels) will deliver substantially lower average US gas prices at the pump than otherwise over the next two months; (b) Permanent repeal of the Jones Act would have a measurably bigger impact in lowering average US gas prices at the pump than a temporary suspension; (c) Any national security benefits from the Jones Act are more than offset by its negative economic effects

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 25, 2026

Municipal Grocery Stores In New York City

Responses

Responses

Defense Spending

Responses

Responses

Responses

The UK and Europe

Factory-Made Housing

Permanent Residency Rules

Living-Donor Kidney Transplants

AI, Work, and Education

Pied-a-Terre Tax

Science Funding

The Jones Act

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