US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Pied-a-Terre Tax

Question A:

The New York governor has proposed a pied-à-terre tax to support the New York City mayor’s efforts to close the city’s budget gap: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-pied-terre-tax-proposal-luxury-second-homes-valued-5-million-or-more

Details are starting to emerge: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/nyregion/second-home-tax.html

In the meantime, consider a tax that starts at 0.5% of assessed value over $5 million and rises to 4% of assessed value over $25 million, as in this 2019 proposal: https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/bills/2019/S44/amendment/original

An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would raise annual revenues of at least $500 million for the city over the next five years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would lead to a substantial exodus of businesses and high-net-worth individuals from the city over the next five years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question C:

An annual property tax surcharge on second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more would make housing substantially more affordable for ordinary New Yorkers over the next five years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Investment, Infrastructure, & Cities

May 4, 2026

Science Funding

Question A:

Independent of any other cuts to public funding of scientific research, a 55% reduction in the budget for the National Science Foundation would have no measurable effect on the well-being of the typical American over the next 10 years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

Historical federal support for scientific research has paid for itself through a substantial positive effect on long-run US productivity growth.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

April 15, 2026

The Jones Act

This US survey examines (a) The 60-day waiver of the Jones Act (which requires that cargo moved between domestic ports is carried on US vessels) will deliver substantially lower average US gas prices at the pump than otherwise over the next two months; (b) Permanent repeal of the Jones Act would have a measurably bigger impact in lowering average US gas prices at the pump than a temporary suspension; (c) Any national security benefits from the Jones Act are more than offset by its negative economic effects

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

March 25, 2026

Gas Prices

This US survey examines (a) The release of strategic oil reserves announced by the International Energy Agency will deliver substantially lower US gasoline prices at the pump over the next six months than would otherwise have been the case; (b) Assuming that world oil prices over the next six months continue to be elevated and volatile, temporarily suspending the federal gasoline tax would deliver substantially lower gas prices at the pump than otherwise over that period; (c) A temporary cap on US gasoline prices would substantially lower prices at the pump over the next six months without creating scarcity

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

March 18, 2026

Emissions Regulation

This US survey examines: US regulation of greenhouse gases – including carbon dioxide from motor vehicles and power plants, and methane from oil and gas wells – rests on the Clean Air Act. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently announced its rescission of the greenhouse gas endangerment finding and motor vehicle greenhouse gas emission standards:
https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-rescission-greenhouse-gas-endangerment. The President of the National Academy of Sciences subsequently wrote to the organization's members, noting that 'the EPA justified its decision on legal, economic, and regulatory opinions, and not on the science’. (a) The weight of economic analysis and evidence supports the conclusion that some form of regulation of greenhouse gas emissions is warranted; (b) For US consumers and firms, the health and environmental benefits of greenhouse gas emission standards outweigh the costs, making the EPA rescission substantially net negative for American society; (c) Since the environmental costs of greenhouse gas emissions are globally distributed, some form of collective international regulation is warranted

Environment, Climate Change, & Natural Resources

February 26, 2026

Housing Affordability

This US survey examines (a) Restrictions on large institutional investors buying single-family homes would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership; (b) Having the government-sponsored housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities would measurably improve the affordability of home ownership

Financial Markets & Banking

February 11, 2026

ACA Subsidies

This US survey examines (a) Without extension of the expanded public subsidies for Affordable Care Act healthcare plans, there would be a substantial rise in the number of Americans without health insurance; (b) Losses in the health and well-being of Americans who could no longer afford health insurance in the absence of the subsidies would exceed the savings from the expiration; (c) The possible need for subsidies substantially in excess of those initially provided by the ACA indicates that other changes in the healthcare system are needed to enable broad-based access

Healthcare & Wellbeing

January 29, 2026

Venezuela

This US survey examines (a) The US intervention in Venezuela will have no measurable impact on the world oil price over the next 12 months; (b) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in the profitability of US energy companies over the next five years; (c) The US intervention will lead to a substantial increase in economic growth in Venezuela over the next five years

Democracy, Government, & Public Policy

January 14, 2026

Ukraine Peace Plans

This US survey examines: There are reports that the US strategy in negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict is prioritizing economic interdependence: https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-u-s-peace-business-ties-4db9b290; (a) Creating expanded mutual business opportunities for American, Russian, and Ukrainian firms would lead to a substantially more stable peace agreement (b) Pursuing economic interdependence without complementary diplomacy (including credible guarantees of Ukraine’s future security) is unlikely to end the conflict and subsequently preserve peace

Business, Management, & Corporate Performance

December 10, 2025

AI and Growth

This US survey examines: Adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the next ten years

Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity

December 2, 2025

Pied-a-Terre Tax

Responses

Responses

Responses

Science Funding

Responses

Responses

The Jones Act

Gas Prices

Emissions Regulation

Housing Affordability

ACA Subsidies

Venezuela

Ukraine Peace Plans

AI and Growth

Topics

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