US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

  • ‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
  • ‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.
US

Frozen Assets

Question A:

Western countries have used interest earned on frozen Russian state assets to finance around $50 billion in loans to the government of Ukraine. There have also been calls to seize the assets in full, currently estimated at around $300 billion.

Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially accelerate the ending of the war.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would, by reducing the burden on Western taxpayers, substantially increase Western voters’ political approval for supporting Ukraine.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question C:

Seizing frozen Russian state assets and using them to support Ukraine’s defense, economy and reconstruction would substantially reduce investment in assets denominated in Western currencies and/or increase the likelihood of another country seizing Western sovereign assets in a future conflict.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Democracy, Government, & Public Policy
US

Inflation Target and Expectations

Question A:

If the Fed changed its inflation target from 2% to 3%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
Question B:

The Fed’s revised strategy announced in 2020 - focusing on employment shortfalls and with a more flexible interpretation of the inflation target - has made little practical difference to monetary policy outcomes in the past five years.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology
 
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Democracy, Government, & Public Policy
US

Sanctions

This US survey examines (a) The experience of the past 10 years suggests that Western-led economic sanctions do not substantially deter the target countries from their course of action; (b) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, Russia's current military and economic position would be substantially worse; (c) Had the G7 instituted a complete energy embargo in 2022, the world economy would have faced substantially higher oil prices 
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Democracy, Government, & Public Policy
US

Digital Privacy and Digital Harm

This US survey examines (a) The potential for consumers to be harmed by digital platforms’ use of their personal data is sufficient that they would benefit from laws assigning them some kind of default control rights over their data; (b) The risks of harm from use of social media services - such as harm to mental health, exploitation of children, and more - are now high enough that society would benefit from federal regulations setting safety standards and creating a process of compensation for harm by digital platforms 
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Democracy, Government, & Public Policy
US

Fiscal Sustainability

This US survey examines (a) Long-run US fiscal sustainability will require some combination of slowing the growth of spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases, including higher taxes on households with incomes below $400,000; (b) Issuing an additional $2.3 trillion of debt over the next 10 years, as is projected by the Congressional Budget Office if the House Reconciliation Bill is enacted, will substantially raise interest rates on government debt over that period 
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Public Debt & Deficits
US

Digital Market Regulation

This US survey examines (a) The current antitrust laws and regulations in the United States are inadequate for preventing digital platform firms from engaging in acquisitions and exclusionary conduct that harm competition; (b) Background on the Digital Markets Act: https://digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu/index_en; Digital markets would work better if, in a manner broadly similar to the European Union’s Digital Markets Act*, criteria were established to designate some large firms as 'gatekeepers' and a regulatory body was established to govern the business practices of those gatekeepers 
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Business, Management, & Corporate Performance
US

Foreign Aid

This US survey examines (a) The cancellation of the majority of programs run by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) will have no measurable effects on GDP growth in the recipient countries over the next five years; (b) The cancellation of the majority of USAID programs will have substantially negative effects on the most vulnerable people in the recipient countries over the next five years; (c) Development assistance motivated by the potential benefits for the donors in terms of prosperity and security is measurably more effective in promoting GDP growth in recipient countries than aid based on humanitarian or other moral principles 
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Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity
US

Economic Statistics

This US survey examines (a) The termination of the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Council and shrinking staff at the core US statistical agencies will lead to a substantial reduction in the reliability of government economic data; (b) The quality of economic policy-making will be substantially impaired by reduced funding for the core US statistical agencies; (c) The ability of businesses to forecast and plan will be substantially impaired by lower quality economic data 
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Democracy, Government, & Public Policy
US

Tariffs, Reciprocal and Retaliatory

This US survey examines (a) Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit; (b) The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war; (c) In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover 
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Economic Growth, Development, & Productivity
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