US Economic Experts Panel

 

 

This US survey examines (a) Long-run US fiscal sustainability will require some combination of slowing the growth of spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases, including higher taxes on households with incomes below $400,000; (b) Issuing an additional $2.3 trillion of debt over the next 10 years, as is projected by the Congressional Budget Office if the House Reconciliation Bill is enacted, will substantially raise interest rates on government debt over that period 

This US survey examines (a) A sustained decline in the dollar's market share in the global economy will mean that US consumers are substantially worse off than they otherwise would be; (b) A permanently weaker dollar would substantially raise the US government's cost of financing its deficits 

This US survey examines (a) The current antitrust laws and regulations in the United States are inadequate for preventing digital platform firms from engaging in acquisitions and exclusionary conduct that harm competition; (b) Background on the Digital Markets Act: https://digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu/index_en; Digital markets would work better if, in a manner broadly similar to the European Union’s Digital Markets Act*, criteria were established to designate some large firms as 'gatekeepers' and a regulatory body was established to govern the business practices of those gatekeepers 

This US survey examines (a) The cancellation of the majority of programs run by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) will have no measurable effects on GDP growth in the recipient countries over the next five years; (b) The cancellation of the majority of USAID programs will have substantially negative effects on the most vulnerable people in the recipient countries over the next five years; (c) Development assistance motivated by the potential benefits for the donors in terms of prosperity and security is measurably more effective in promoting GDP growth in recipient countries than aid based on humanitarian or other moral principles 

This US survey examines (a) The termination of the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Council and shrinking staff at the core US statistical agencies will lead to a substantial reduction in the reliability of government economic data; (b) The quality of economic policy-making will be substantially impaired by reduced funding for the core US statistical agencies; (c) The ability of businesses to forecast and plan will be substantially impaired by lower quality economic data 

This US survey examines (a) Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit; (b) The threat of retaliation against the imposition of higher tariffs on a country’s exports substantially lowers the probability of a trade war; (c) In the event that the threat of retaliation does not deter the imposition of tariffs, the economies of countries subject to higher tariffs on their exports would be measurably better off by responding with targeted tariffs on imports from the first mover 

This US survey examines (a) The president has signed an executive order that pauses enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially increase global levels of bribery and corruption; (b) Permanently ending US enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will substantially improve US businesses' long-term profits and long-term competitiveness

  

This US survey examines: The new administration has issued three executive orders related to energy and climate:

Declaring a National Energy Emergency: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declaring-a-national-energy-emergency/
'The United States’ insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to our Nation’s economy, national security, and foreign policy. In light of these findings, I hereby declare a national emergency.'

Insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation constitute a substantial threat to the US economy.

(b)Unleashing American Energy: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-american-energy/
'The calculation of the “social cost of carbon” is marked by logical deficiencies, a poor basis in empirical science, politicization, and the absence of a foundation in legislation… rendering the United States economy internationally uncompetitive… the Administrator of the EPA shall issue guidance to address these harmful and detrimental inadequacies, including consideration of eliminating the “social cost of carbon” calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision.'

Eliminating the ‘social cost of carbon’ calculation from any Federal permitting or regulatory decision would substantially improve the international competitiveness of the US economy.

(c) Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/
'In recent years, the United States has purported to join international agreements and initiatives that do not reflect our country’s values or our contributions to the pursuit of economic and environmental objectives… The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit formal written notification of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.'

Withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement will deliver a measurable boost to US economic growth over the next four years.