US Economic Experts Panel

The Clark Center for Global Markets explores economists’ views on vital policy issues via our US and European Economic Experts Panels. We regularly poll over 80 economists on a range of timely and relevant topics. Panelists not only have the opportunity to respond to a poll’s statements, but an opportunity to comment and provide additional resources, if they wish. The Clark Center then shares the results with the public in a straightforward and concise format.

Please note that from September 2022, the language in our polls will use just two modifiers to refer to the size of an effect:

‘Substantial’: when an effect is large enough that it would make a difference that matters for the behavior involved.
‘Measurable’: when the direction of the effect is clear, but perhaps experts would differ as to whether it is substantial.

Immigration and Innovation

Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 17, 2018

Aging

Question A:

Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Question B:

In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.

Responses

Source: Clark Center Economic Experts Panel
Methodology

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

January 3, 2018

Bitcoin II

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) A bitcoin has a fundamental value of at least $1,000.

B) The best forecast for the value of one bitcoin in 2 years is its current price.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

December 20, 2017

Employment and the US Economy

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The concept of “maximum sustainable employment” is well defined enough to be used beneficially in economic policymaking.

B) Right now the US economy is operating below maximum sustainable employment.

Business Cycles, Recessions, & Crises

December 6, 2017

Tax Reform

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:

A) If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate— and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.

B) If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate— and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — the US debt-to-GDP ratio will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 21, 2017

Balanced Budget Amendment

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:

A) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States.

B) Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

November 7, 2017

Behavioral Economics

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:

Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 19, 2017

Factors Contributing to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis

Please rate the importance (0=none; 5= highest) of each item below (presented to panelists in randomized order) in contributing to the 2008 global financial crisis. © 2017. Initiative on Global Markets. Source: IGM Economic Experts Panels www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel © 2017. Initiative on Global Markets. Source: IGM Economic Experts Panels www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel The following items were presented to […]

October 17, 2017

Refugees in Germany

This week's IGM Economic Experts Panel Statement:

The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

October 12, 2017

Robots and Artificial Intelligence

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.

B) Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.

Clark Center Economic Experts Panel

September 12, 2017