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This is Round 08 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. This survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright. The list of experts answering the questions is identified in the post along with the responses. Individual responses are anonymous. A simple summary of responses of Round 08 appears here on the […] 

This is Round 07 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. This survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright. The list of experts answering the questions is identified in the post along with the responses. Individual responses are anonymous. A simple summary of responses of Round 07 appears here on the […] 

Steven J. Davis, Casey B. Mulligan, Joseph S. Vavra, and Robert H. Topel As Congress and the President discussed whether further assistance for the economy is warranted, the IGM convened a conversation amongst Steven J. Davis, Casey B. Mulligan, and Joseph S. Vavra, and moderated by Robert H. Topel. Our panelists discussed what we know […] 

Paul A. Gompers, Will Gornall, Steven N. Kaplan, and Ilya A. Strebulaev We survey over 1,000 institutional and corporate venture capitalists (VCs) at more than 900 different firms to learn how their decisions and investments have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We compare their survey answers to those provided by a large sample of […] 

This is Round 06 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. This survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright. The list of experts answering the questions is identified in the post along with the responses. Individual responses are anonymous. A simple summary of responses of Round 06 appears here on the […] 

Despite the latest GDP figures showing that the US economy had contracted nearly 10% in the second quarter and with unemployment insurance claim numbers continuing to rise, there is still no resolution in Washington on whether the enhanced federal benefits for the jobless set to expire today (31 July) will be extended in some form.

We recently invited our panel to express their views on the possible trade-off between work incentives and the income support provided by the unemployment insurance supplements, whether the top-ups should be reduced or ended, and how the economic and public health conditions in each state might determine the level of federal UI contributions.

 

Lubos Pastor and Blair Vorsatz Active fund managers are widely believed to outperform during market downturns. This column uses daily returns from US active equity mutual funds to examine fund performance and investor behaviour in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis. It finds that active equity mutual funds underperform a variety of passive benchmarks, contradicting […] 

This week’s IGM European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Right now, the central focus of fiscal policy should be on temporary measures to provide protection and promote rapid economic recovery rather than trying to advance other objectives, such as reducing debt, tackling climate change or addressing inequality.

B) Cutting taxes on firms (or delaying tax collection) will allow more of them to survive and be more effective than public spending for triggering a rapid economic recovery.

C) European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should be primarily in the form of grants rather than loans.

D) European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should not be made on condition of commitments to reform by recipients.